Ligue 1, round 11 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Marseille — Le Mans
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Marseille are clear favourites: 66% against 14% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Marseille are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Marseille are 232 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Marseille — No. 6, 15 pts; Le Mans — No. 17, 7 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Le Mans: winless in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Marseille — Le Mans What is xG? | 2.3–1.1 | |
| Marseille not to lose | 86% | |
| Le Mans not to lose | 34% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Marseille
- Marseille goals
- Le Mans goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Marseille | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.41 | 1.36 |
| Opponents’ xG | 2.29 | 1.89 |
| Shots | 12.8 | 9.4 |
| On target | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Corners | 4.5 | 2.5 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 46 |
Form
- 01.11Toulouse2:0
- 25.10Le Havre4:3
- 22.10away · Sturm Graz0:1
- 18.10away · Angers5:2
- 15.10Olympiacos0:1
- 31.10away · Troyes0:2
- 25.10away · Auxerre1:1
- 16.10Toulouse0:3
- 10.10away · Paris Saint-Germain1:3
- 19.09Lorient2:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- Paris FCAngerspreliminary6721121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- LorientRennespreliminary3326402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →