Ligue 1, round 11 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Paris FC — Angers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Paris FC are clear favourites: 67% against 12% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Paris FC are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Paris FC are 279 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Paris FC — No. 4, 17 pts; Angers — No. 15, 8 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Angers: winless in 4.
- Last 4 meetings: Paris FC 1 win, Angers 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paris FC — Angers What is xG? | 2.0–0.8 | |
| Paris FC not to lose | 88% | |
| Angers not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Paris FC
- Paris FC goals
- Angers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Paris FC | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| xG per match | 1.78 | 1.28 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.91 | 1.77 |
| Shots | 14.1 | 11.9 |
| On target | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 3.4 | 5.7 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 47 |
Form
Head to head
- 25.01.2026Paris FC — Angers0:0
- 17.08.2025Angers — Paris FC1:0
- 27.04.2024Paris FC — Angers3:1
- 02.09.2023Angers — Paris FC2:0
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- LorientRennespreliminary3326402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- MarseilleLe Manspreliminary6619141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →