Swiss Super League, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Lugano — Grasshopper
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lugano are clear favourites: 68% against 11% for the opponent, draw 20%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lugano are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Lugano are 413 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Lugano — No. 1, 34 pts; Grasshopper — No. 11, 10 pts. A gap of 24 pts.
- Lugano: 5 wins in a row; Grasshopper: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Lugano 2 wins, Grasshopper 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lugano — Grasshopper What is xG? | 2.3–1.0 | |
| Lugano not to lose | 89% | |
| Grasshopper not to lose | 32% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Lugano
- Lugano goals
- Grasshopper goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Lugano | Grasshopper |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| xG per match | 1.80 | 1.96 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.34 | 2.26 |
| Shots | 17.3 | 15.6 |
| On target | 6.0 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| Cards | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 44 |
Form
Head to head
- 02.08.2026Grasshopper — Lugano1:4
- 01.03.2026Grasshopper — Lugano1:0
- 31.01.2026Grasshopper — Lugano1:1
- 27.09.2025Lugano — Grasshopper2:1
- 08.02.2025Lugano — Grasshopper1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Lugano | 12 | 11 | +26 | 34 |
| 2, Championship round | Young Boys | 12 | 7 | +15 | 25 |
| 10, Relegation round | FC Vaduz | 12 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11, Relegation round | Grasshopper | 12 | 2 | -13 | 10 |
| 12, Relegation round | Lausanne | 12 | 1 | -11 | 6 |
Swiss Super League on the same day
- Young BoysThunpreliminary6022181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:14.3
- SionServettepreliminary5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 68% will not happen in roughly 32 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →