Swiss Super League, round 14 · Saturday, 21 November, 20:00 (UTC+3)

Young Boys — Thun

Model prediction for 21 November

Young Boys60%

Draw22%

Thun18%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Young Boys are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 22%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 3.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 77%, both teams to score — 76%.

Why

By the strength ratings Young Boys are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Young Boys are 229 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Young Boys — No. 2, 25 pts; Thun — No. 9, 13 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Young Boys 3 wins, Thun 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Young Boys — Thun What is xG?		2.6–1.6
Young Boys not to lose		82%
Thun not to lose		40%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		76%
Both teams to score: no		24%
Total over 2.5		77%
Total under 2.5		23%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Young Boys
Young Boys goals
Thun goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Young Boys	Thun
Goals scored per match	2.8	1.5
Goals conceded per match	2.1	2.2
xG per match	2.12	1.70
Opponents’ xG	1.68	1.91
Shots	18.7	15.4
On target	6.8	4.2
Corners	6.3	5.3
Cards	2.5	2.5
Possession, %	51	49

Averages per match: Young Boys — the last 10, Thun — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Young Boys

01.11FC Zürich3:5
24.10St. Gallen2:0
11.10away · Grasshopper2:0
19.09Servette3:2
12.09away · Lugano2:2

Thun

01.11away · Lausanne5:4
25.10Lugano2:3
22.10Hajduk Split0:1
15.10away · FC Twente0:1
10.10away · FC Zürich2:4

Head to head

01.08.2026Thun — Young Boys0:6
14.05.2026Thun — Young Boys3:8
08.03.2026Young Boys — Thun1:2
25.01.2026Thun — Young Boys4:1
28.09.2025Young Boys — Thun4:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	Lugano	12	11	1	0	36–10	+26	34
2, Championship round	Young Boys	12	7	4	1	38–23	+15	25
3, Championship round	Sion	12	7	2	3	25–18	+7	23
8, Relegation round	Luzern	12	3	4	5	19–25	-6	13
9, Relegation round	Thun	12	4	1	7	24–34	-10	13
10, Relegation round	FC Vaduz	12	3	1	8	24–25	-1	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Swiss Super League on the same day

20:00
LuganoGrasshopperpreliminary
682011
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
22:30
SionServettepreliminary
562618
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →