Tanzania Premier League, round 11 · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3)
Mbeya City — Singida Black Stars
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In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Singida Black Stars to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Singida Black Stars are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Singida Black Stars are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Singida Black Stars are 60 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Mbeya City: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Mbeya City 0 wins, Singida Black Stars 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mbeya City — Singida Black Stars What is xG? | 1.1–1.6 | |
| Mbeya City not to lose | 52% | |
| Singida Black Stars not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mbeya City
- Mbeya City goals
- Singida Black Stars goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 22′Riphat Msuya · Mbeya City1:0
Form
- 28.10away · Azam FC0:4
- 18.10away · JKT Tanzania1:2
- 09.10Kagera Sugar1:3
- 12.09away · Polisi Tanzania FC0:2
- 04.09away · TRA United0:0
- 29.10away · Pamba Jiji1:0
- 12.10away · Coastal Union0:1
- 09.10away · Dodoma Jiji FC1:1
- 09.09away · Mashujaa1:2
- 01.09Namungo FC3:2
Head to head
- 26.05.2026Singida Black Stars — Mbeya City4:1
- 15.03.2026Mbeya City — Singida Black Stars1:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mashujaa | 10 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 10 | 4 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Coastal Union | 11 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Mbeya City | 10 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | TRA United | 10 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
Next matches
- Namungo FCMbeya City20 November · Tanzania Premier League · preliminary5428181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- Azam FCSingida Black Stars20 November · Tanzania Premier League · preliminary731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →