Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Allianz Field
Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo FC
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Minnesota United to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Minnesota United are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Minnesota United are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Minnesota United: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Minnesota United 2 wins, Houston Dynamo FC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo FC What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Minnesota United not to lose | 71% | |
| Houston Dynamo FC not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Minnesota United
- Minnesota United goals
- Houston Dynamo FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Seattle Sounders FC1:3
- 20.09LA Galaxy2:3
- 13.09away · St. Louis City2:4
- 10.09FC Dallas1:2
- 06.09away · Portland Timbers4:5
- 27.09Sporting Kansas City0:2
- 20.09FC Cincinnati2:2
- 13.09away · San Jose Earthquakes0:1
- 10.09Real Salt Lake2:1
- 06.09away · Charlotte FC0:0
Head to head
- 26.06.2025Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo FC3:1
- 15.05.2025Houston Dynamo FC — Minnesota United2:0
- 14.07.2024Houston Dynamo FC — Minnesota United1:1
- 14.04.2024Minnesota United — Houston Dynamo FC1:2
- 13.07.2023Houston Dynamo FC — Minnesota United0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | New England Revolution | 28 | 14 | +6 | 46 |
| 10, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Houston Dynamo FC | 28 | 13 | +2 | 45 |
| 11, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 11 | +13 | 42 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
| 25 | Minnesota United | 28 | 7 | -9 | 30 |
| 26 | DC United | 27 | 6 | -12 | 30 |
Next matches
- Colorado RapidsMinnesota United15 October · MLS4727261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- San Diego FCHouston Dynamo FC15 October · MLS4427291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →