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Paraguayan Primera Division · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Arsenio Erico

Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Nacional (PAR)78%
Draw16%
Sportivo San Lorenzo6%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (PAR) to win (78%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 78% fails in about 22 matches out of 100 on average.

Nacional (PAR) are clear favourites: 78% against 6% for the opponent, draw 16%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 32%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Nacional (PAR) are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Nacional (PAR) are 429 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • Last 3 meetings: Nacional (PAR) 2 wins, Sportivo San Lorenzo 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo San Lorenzo What is xG?2.1–0.4
Nacional (PAR) not to lose94%
Sportivo San Lorenzo not to lose22%
No draw84%
Both teams to score: yes32%
Both teams to score: no68%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Nacional (PAR)
  • Nacional (PAR) goals
  • Sportivo San Lorenzo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 8′Isaías Fretes · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  2. 23′Marcelo Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo0:1
  3. 46′Lucas Cohener · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  4. 50′Luis Cáceres · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  5. 52′Pablo Fornasari · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  6. 65′Sebastián Vargas · Nacional (PAR)
  7. 71′Rodrigo Amarilla · Sportivo San Lorenzo0:2
  8. 84′Gastón Gerzel · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  9. 89′Derlis Caballero · Nacional (PAR)
  10. 90′Alexis Doldán · Sportivo San Lorenzo
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Iván Valdez ↔ Jordán Santacruz · Nacional (PAR)
  2. 46′Richard Prieto ↔ Francisco Pumpido · Nacional (PAR)
  3. 46′Ángel Benítez ↔ Franco Aragón · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  4. 61′Ignacio Bailone ↔ Orlando Gaona Lugo · Nacional (PAR)
  5. 61′Roque Santa Cruz ↔ Fabrizio Jara · Nacional (PAR)
  6. 61′Alexis Doldán ↔ Lucas Cohener · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  7. 61′Rodrigo Amarilla ↔ Kevin Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  8. 69′Santiago Salcedo ↔ Marcelo Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  9. 76′Derlis Caballero ↔ Sebastián Vargas · Nacional (PAR)
  10. 82′Teodoro Paredes ↔ Isaías Fretes · Sportivo San Lorenzo

Match statistics

Nacional (PAR)Sportivo San Lorenzo
  • 65Possession, %35
  • 19Shots15
  • 5On target4
  • 1Big chances3
  • 5Corners4
  • 14Fouls11
  • 1Offsides2
  • 2Yellow cards5
  • 0Red cards0

Form

Nacional (PAR)

  • 01.11away · Luqueño3:0
  • 24.10Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 17.10away · Guaraní2:0
  • 13.10Recoleta1:0
  • 07.10away · Olimpia1:1

Sportivo San Lorenzo

  • 01.11Libertad2:1
  • 26.10Cerro Porteño1:3
  • 19.10away · Luqueño2:3
  • 10.10Sportivo Trinidense1:1
  • 03.10away · Guaraní1:1

Head to head

  • 29.08.2026Sportivo San Lorenzo — Nacional (PAR)0:3
  • 23.03.2026Sportivo San Lorenzo — Nacional (PAR)0:0
  • 25.01.2026Nacional (PAR) — Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →