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Uruguayan Primera Division, round 12 · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3)

Nacional (URU) — Liverpool FC

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Model prediction and result

0:1Missed
Nacional (URU)51%
Draw26%
Liverpool FC23%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (URU) to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Nacional (URU) are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Nacional (URU) are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Nacional (URU) are 106 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Nacional (URU): 5 wins in a row; Liverpool FC: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Nacional (URU) 4 wins, Liverpool FC 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nacional (URU) — Liverpool FC What is xG?1.5–1.0
Nacional (URU) not to lose77%
Liverpool FC not to lose49%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.546%
Total under 2.554%

91 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Nacional (URU)
  • Nacional (URU) goals
  • Liverpool FC goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 32′Federico Martínez · Liverpool FC0:1
  2. 35′Santiago Milano · Liverpool FC
  3. 36′Tiziano Correa · Nacional (URU)
  4. 67′Rubén Bentancourt · Liverpool FC
  5. 71′Luciano Boggio · Nacional (URU)
  6. 73′Tomás Viera · Nacional (URU)
  7. 74′Diego Romero · Liverpool FC
  8. 78′Nicolás Garayalde · Liverpool FC
  9. 91′Santiago Strasorier · Liverpool FC
  10. 92′Maxi Gómez · Nacional (URU)
Substitutions (10)
  1. 35′Agustín Rogel ↔ Luciano Rodríguez · Nacional (URU)
  2. 47′Maximiliano Silvera ↔ Luciano González · Nacional (URU)
  3. 57′Diego Romero ↔ Ramiro Degregorio · Liverpool FC
  4. 64′Tomás Viera ↔ Camilo Cándido · Nacional (URU)
  5. 77′Rodrigo Martínez ↔ Tiziano Correa · Nacional (URU)
  6. 77′Agustín dos Santos ↔ Luciano Boggio · Nacional (URU)
  7. 77′Santiago Laquidain ↔ Santiago Milano · Liverpool FC
  8. 84′Joaquín Pintos ↔ Kevin Lewis · Liverpool FC
  9. 85′Renzo Machado ↔ Federico Martínez · Liverpool FC
  10. 86′Diego Zabala ↔ Lucas Acosta · Liverpool FC

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Nacional (URU)

  1. GKAlexis Arias
  2. DFFrancisco Calvo
  3. DFSebastián Coates
  4. DFCamilo Cándido64′
  5. DFLuciano Rodríguez35′
  6. MFGastón Martirena
  7. MFLuciano Boggio77′
  8. MFLucas Rodríguez
  9. MFLuciano González47′
  10. FWMaxi Gómez
  11. FWTiziano Correa77′
Came on (5)
  1. DFAgustín Rogel55′
  2. FWMaximiliano Silvera43′
  3. DFTomás Viera26′
  4. MFAgustín dos Santos13′
  5. FWRodrigo Martínez13′

Liverpool FC

  1. GKMathías Bernatene
  2. DFSantiago Strasorier
  3. DFAgustín Cayetano
  4. DFSantiago Milano77′
  5. MFNicolás Garayalde
  6. MFRafael Haller
  7. MFKevin Lewis84′
  8. MFLucas Acosta86′
  9. FWRamiro Degregorio57′
  10. FWRubén Bentancourt
  11. FWFederico Martínez85′
Came on (5)
  1. DFSantiago Laquidain13′
  2. MFDiego Zabala4′
  3. DFDiego Romero33′
  4. FWRenzo Machado5′
  5. MFJoaquín Pintos6′

Form

Nacional (URU)

  • 20.10Deportivo Maldonado3:2
  • 12.10away · Central Español1:0
  • 06.10Montevideo City Torque2:0
  • 26.09away · Cerro Largo2:0
  • 20.09Defensor Sporting3:2

Liverpool FC

  • 19.10Club Atletico Peñarol1:0
  • 10.10away · Deportivo Maldonado1:1
  • 03.10Club Atlético Progreso3:2
  • 27.09away · Central Español2:1
  • 21.09Racing0:0

Head to head

  • 20.04.2026Liverpool FC — Nacional (URU)1:3
  • 21.09.2025Nacional (URU) — Liverpool FC3:1
  • 26.03.2025Liverpool FC — Nacional (URU)2:2
  • 09.09.2024Nacional (URU) — Liverpool FC1:0
  • 15.06.2024Nacional (URU) — Liverpool FC2:1

Full record: 10 meetings →

Next matches

  • DanubioNacional (URU)1 November · Uruguayan Primera
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.4
  • Liverpool FCJuventud de las Piedras2 November · Uruguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →