Uzbekistan Super League, round 28 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Nasaf Qarshi — Mashal Muborak
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nasaf Qarshi are clear favourites: 87% against 3% for the opponent, draw 10%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 30%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nasaf Qarshi are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Nasaf Qarshi are 446 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Nasaf Qarshi — No. 5, 42 pts; Mashal Muborak — No. 16, 4 pts. A gap of 38 pts.
- Nasaf Qarshi: unbeaten in 5; Mashal Muborak: 5 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nasaf Qarshi — Mashal Muborak What is xG? | 2.7–0.4 | |
| Nasaf Qarshi not to lose | 97% | |
| Mashal Muborak not to lose | 13% | |
| No draw | 90% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 30% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 70% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nasaf Qarshi
- Nasaf Qarshi goals
- Mashal Muborak goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
Form
- 31.10away · Surkhon-20111:1
- 24.10Sogdiana2:1
- 17.10away · Lokomotiv Tashkent0:0
- 09.10Dinamo Samarkand2:1
- 20.09away · Andijon4:1
- 31.10Dinamo Samarkand0:3
- 22.10away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:2
- 15.10AGMK0:1
- 09.10away · Kokand 19120:3
- 19.09Pakhtakor Tashkent1:2
Head to head
- 22.07.2026Mashal Muborak — Nasaf Qarshi1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AGMK | 26 | 13 | +5 | 45 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 26 | 11 | +14 | 42 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 26 | 12 | +5 | 42 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 26 | 5 | -16 | 23 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 26 | 1 | -41 | 4 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- XorazmBuxoropreliminary2830422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.6
- Kokand 1912Sogdianapreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 87% will not happen in roughly 13 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →