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Ligue 1, round 9 · Friday, 30 October, (UTC+3) · Allianz Riviera

Nice — Rennes

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Model prediction and result

5:2Came true
Nice41%
Draw25%
Rennes34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:2: the model's most likely outcome, Nice to win (41%), came true.

Evenly matched: Nice 41%, Rennes 34%, draw 25%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Rennes will be without Brice Samba, Estéban Lepaul — the model weakens their attack.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Nice 2 wins, Rennes 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Nice — Rennes What is xG?1.6–1.4
Nice not to lose66%
Rennes not to lose59%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes63%
Both teams to score: no37%
Total over 2.560%
Total under 2.540%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Nice
  • Nice goals
  • Rennes goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 12′Elye Wahi · penalty · Nice1:0
  2. 15′Sebastian Szymański · Rennes1:1
  3. 34′Elye Wahi · penalty · Nice2:1
  4. 47′Jonathan Clauss · Nice3:1
  5. 52′Mohamed Amoura · Nice4:1
  6. 58′Boulaye Dia · penalty · Rennes4:2
  7. 61′Anthony Rouault · Rennes
  8. 62′Elye Wahi · Nice
  9. 73′Elye Wahi · Nice5:2
  10. 84′Charlie Cresswell · Rennes
  11. 84′Mohamed Abdelmonem · Nice
  12. 84′Mahdi Camara · Rennes
  13. 84′Youssouf Ndayishimiye · Nice
  14. 88′Mohamed Amoura · Nice
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Bryan Reynolds ↔ Przemysław Frankowski · Rennes
  2. 46′Mahdi Camara ↔ Adrien Thomasson · Rennes
  3. 68′Djaoui Cissé ↔ Valentin Rongier · Rennes
  4. 68′Issa Soumaré ↔ Boulaye Dia · Rennes
  5. 68′Gauthier Hein ↔ Sofiane Diop · Nice
  6. 74′Eliezer Mayenda ↔ Mousa Tamari · Rennes
  7. 74′Morgan Sanson ↔ Djibril Coulibaly · Nice
  8. 85′Hamza Koutoune ↔ Jonathan Clauss · Nice
  9. 85′Nathan N'Goumou ↔ Elye Wahi · Nice

Match statistics

NiceRennes
  • 3.38Expected goals (xG)2.60
  • 48Possession, %52
  • 17Shots18
  • 8On target9
  • 6Big chances5
  • 4Corners7
  • 8Fouls10
  • 2Offsides3
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Nice

  1. GKYéhvann Diouf7.9
  2. DFMohamed Abdelmonem6.7
  3. DFYoussouf Ndayishimiye (C)7.3
  4. DFXavier Mandza7.0
  5. MFJonathan Clauss85′8.5
  6. MFDjibril Coulibaly74′6.6
  7. MFNiels Nkounkou7.7
  8. MFSofiane Diop68′8.1
  9. MFHicham Boudaoui7.2
  10. FWMohamed Amoura8.4
  11. FWElye Wahi85′9.8
Came on (4)
  1. MFGauthier Hein22′7.5
  2. FWNathan N'Goumou5′
  3. DFHamza Koutoune5′
  4. MFMorgan Sanson16′6.1

Rennes

  1. GKNicolas Lemaître4.4
  2. DFPrzemysław Frankowski45′6.3
  3. DFCharlie Cresswell6.7
  4. DFAbdelhamid Aït Boudlal5.5
  5. DFMahamadou Nagida7.3
  6. DFAnthony Rouault5.2
  7. MFSebastian Szymański8.1
  8. MFValentin Rongier (C)68′6.0
  9. MFAdrien Thomasson45′6.3
  10. FWBoulaye Dia68′7.9
  11. FWMousa Tamari74′7.1
Came on (5)
  1. MFMahdi Camara45′6.1
  2. FWEliezer Mayenda16′6.3
  3. DFBryan Reynolds45′6.3
  4. FWIssa Soumaré22′6.2
  5. MFDjaoui Cissé22′6.1

Form

Nice

  • 23.10away · Brest2:1
  • 18.10away · Lyon1:2
  • 11.10Strasbourg2:1
  • 20.09Lille2:1
  • 12.09away · Auxerre0:1

Rennes

  • 25.10Strasbourg3:0
  • 22.10away · Juventus2:2
  • 18.10away · Paris FC3:4
  • 15.10OFI Crete2:1
  • 11.10Auxerre4:1

Head to head

  • 08.03.2026Nice — Rennes0:4
  • 26.10.2025Rennes — Nice1:2
  • 10.05.2025Rennes — Nice2:0
  • 03.01.2025Nice — Rennes3:2
  • 13.01.2024Rennes — Nice2:0

Full record: 21 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Champions League qualifyingParis FC952216–10+617
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueRennes951320–19+116
6, Europa League or Conference LeagueMarseille950420–13+715
7Monaco943212–10+215
8Nice942313–12+114
9Lens941416–13+313

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • RennesOlympiacos4 November · Europa League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • AngersNice8 November · Ligue 1
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • Le HavreParis Saint-Germain
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:5. Model's score: 1:3.3.3
  • LilleLens
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →