Nigeria NPFL, round 11 · Friday, 30 October, (UTC+3)
Niger Tornadoes — Barau
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Niger Tornadoes to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Niger Tornadoes are clear favourites: 48% against 21% for the opponent, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 1.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 28%, both teams to score — 33%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Niger Tornadoes: unbeaten in 4; Barau: winless in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Niger Tornadoes 1 win, Barau 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Niger Tornadoes — Barau What is xG? | 1.1–0.7 | |
| Niger Tornadoes not to lose | 79% | |
| Barau not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 33% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 67% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 28% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 72% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Niger Tornadoes
- Niger Tornadoes goals
- Barau goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 25.10away · Abia Warriors1:0
- 18.10Ikorodu City2:1
- 10.10away · Ranchers Bees0:0
- 04.10Kun Khalifat1:0
- 27.09away · Nasarawa United0:1
- 25.10Kwara United1:1
- 19.10away · Rivers United FC0:0
- 11.10Enugu Rangers2:2
- 04.10away · Bendel Insurance1:4
- 26.09away · Sporting Lagos1:1
Head to head
- 14.01.2026Barau — Niger Tornadoes2:1
- 28.12.2025Niger Tornadoes — Barau2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Plateau United | 11 | 4 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 | Barau | 11 | 3 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 | Niger Tornadoes | 11 | 4 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 11 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
Next matches
- Bendel InsuranceNiger Tornadoes8 November · Nigeria NPFL6722111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- BarauShooting Stars8 November · Nigeria NPFL6423121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →