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Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio 9 de Mayo Banco de Machala

Orense — Técnico Universitario

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Orense49%
Draw27%
Técnico Universitario24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Orense to win (49%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 49% fails in about 51 matches out of 100 on average.

Orense are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Orense are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Orense are 148 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Orense 2 wins, Técnico Universitario 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Orense — Técnico Universitario What is xG?1.5–1.0
Orense not to lose76%
Técnico Universitario not to lose51%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes50%
Both teams to score: no50%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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  • Handicap Orense
  • Orense goals
  • Técnico Universitario goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 34′Edwin Mesa · Técnico Universitario
  2. 48′Sixto Mina · Orense
  3. 52′Luis Estupiñán · Técnico Universitario0:1
  4. 77′Ayrton Morales · Técnico Universitario
  5. 86′Agustín Herrera · Orense1:1
Substitutions (9)
  1. 46′Miguel Parrales ↔ Michael Bermúdez · Orense
  2. 57′Adrian Cela ↔ Johan Bocanegra · Técnico Universitario
  3. 64′Nixon Molina ↔ Gabriel Achilier · Orense
  4. 64′Bryan Quiñonez ↔ Renny Jaramillo · Orense
  5. 64′Ángel Mena ↔ Valentín Burgoa · Orense
  6. 70′Carlos Cuero ↔ Diego Armas · Técnico Universitario
  7. 72′Jhon Valencia ↔ Pedro Velasco · Orense
  8. 82′Anthony Castillo ↔ Matheo Castaño · Técnico Universitario
  9. 82′Wagner Caicedo ↔ Luis Estupiñán · Técnico Universitario

Match statistics

OrenseTécnico Universitario
  • 59Possession, %41
  • 14Shots10
  • 5On target5
  • 1Big chances1
  • 5Corners1
  • 11Fouls13
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Orense

  1. GKRolando Silva6.8
  2. DFSixto Mina7.1
  3. DFGabriel Achilier (C)64′7.0
  4. DFSteeven Quiñonez6.1
  5. MFPedro Velasco72′6.7
  6. MFBeder Caicedo7.2
  7. MFRenny Jaramillo64′6.8
  8. MFGonzalo Rostagno7.0
  9. FWValentín Burgoa64′6.6
  10. FWAgustín Herrera7.7
  11. FWMichael Bermúdez45′6.9
Came on (5)
  1. FWÁngel Mena26′6.5
  2. FWMiguel Parrales45′6.2
  3. FWJhon Valencia18′6.3
  4. MFNixon Molina26′7.4
  5. DFBryan Quiñonez26′6.5

Técnico Universitario

  1. GKAyrton Morales6.7
  2. DFJulian Anaya6.6
  3. DFEdwin Mesa7.5
  4. DFYorlin Arce7.2
  5. DFRafael Chila7.3
  6. MFJohan Bocanegra57′7.4
  7. MFBagner Delgado6.6
  8. MFMatheo Castaño82′7.3
  9. MFJonathan Majao6.3
  10. FWDiego Armas (C)70′6.6
  11. FWLuis Estupiñán82′7.8
Came on (4)
  1. DFCarlos Cuero20′6.4
  2. MFAdrian Cela33′6.2
  3. FWAnthony Castillo8′
  4. FWWagner Caicedo8′

Form

Orense

  • 24.10Delfín4:0
  • 19.10away · Mushuc Runa1:1
  • 11.10Deportivo Cuenca0:0
  • 21.09away · Manta1:2
  • 15.09away · Universidad Católica (ECU)1:2

Técnico Universitario

  • 26.10Mushuc Runa3:0
  • 16.10away · Deportivo Cuenca1:2
  • 10.10away · Manta0:1
  • 20.09Delfín1:1
  • 13.09away · Leones del Norte1:0

Head to head

  • 07.07.2026Orense — Técnico Universitario1:2
  • 28.02.2026Técnico Universitario — Orense1:1
  • 08.07.2025Técnico Universitario — Orense1:2
  • 11.03.2025Orense — Técnico Universitario2:1
  • 10.11.2024Orense — Técnico Universitario0:2

Full record: 9 meetings →

Next matches

  • Deportivo CuencaOrense7 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
  • Técnico UniversitarioManta9 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →