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Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Monday, 2 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Guayaquil City — Libertad (ECU)

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Model prediction and result

0:0Missed
Guayaquil City36%
Draw29%
Libertad (ECU)35%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Guayaquil City to win (36%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 36% fails in about 64 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Guayaquil City 36%, Libertad (ECU) 35%, draw 29%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Libertad (ECU) are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Guayaquil City 1 win, Libertad (ECU) 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Guayaquil City — Libertad (ECU) What is xG?1.4–1.4
Guayaquil City not to lose65%
Libertad (ECU) not to lose64%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Guayaquil City
  • Guayaquil City goals
  • Libertad (ECU) goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 42′Jackson Rodríguez · Libertad (ECU)
  2. 46′Orlín Quiñónez · Libertad (ECU)
  3. 68′Roger Arias · Guayaquil City
  4. 79′Xavier Pineda · Libertad (ECU)
Substitutions (9)
  1. 63′Cristhian Valencia ↔ Vilington Branda · Libertad (ECU)
  2. 63′Antony Chére ↔ Enrique Caicedo · Libertad (ECU)
  3. 69′Anderson Naula ↔ Pablo González · Guayaquil City
  4. 69′Santiago Laurino ↔ Pablo Mancilla · Guayaquil City
  5. 69′Romario Caicedo ↔ Diego Dorregaray · Guayaquil City
  6. 86′Joshué Quiñónez ↔ Junior Ayoví · Guayaquil City
  7. 88′Manuel Palma ↔ Miler Bolaños · Guayaquil City
  8. 88′Stick Castro ↔ Gabriel Cortéz · Libertad (ECU)
  9. 99′Dany Coronel ↔ Xavier Pineda · Libertad (ECU)

Match statistics

Guayaquil CityLibertad (ECU)
  • 65Possession, %35
  • 13Shots13
  • 2On target2
  • 0Big chances1
  • 7Corners2
  • 11Fouls14
  • 3Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Guayaquil City

  1. GKGilmar Napa7.1
  2. DFJunior Ayoví86′6.9
  3. DFJanvier Rodríguez6.5
  4. DFRoger Arias7.2
  5. DFErick Ladines6.8
  6. MFDixon Arroyo7.7
  7. MFPablo Mancilla69′7.3
  8. FWDiego Dorregaray69′6.1
  9. FWEdinson Mero6.1
  10. FWMiler Bolaños (C)88′7.7
  11. FWPablo González69′7.1
Came on (5)
  1. DFJoshué Quiñónez4′
  2. DFRomario Caicedo21′6.5
  3. MFSantiago Laurino21′6.4
  4. MFAnderson Naula21′6.2
  5. FWManuel Palma2′

Libertad (ECU)

  1. GKDavid Cabezas (C)7.3
  2. DFBryan Caicedo7.0
  3. DFJackson Rodríguez7.0
  4. DFElvis Patta7.0
  5. DFCarlos Gruezo6.8
  6. DFOrlín Quiñónez7.0
  7. MFVilington Branda63′6.3
  8. MFJostin Bravo6.7
  9. MFEnrique Caicedo63′6.2
  10. MFXavier Pineda89′7.7
  11. FWGabriel Cortéz88′7.4
Came on (4)
  1. MFStick Castro2′
  2. FWDany Coronel1′
  3. FWAntony Chére27′6.2
  4. MFCristhian Valencia27′6.3

Form

Guayaquil City

  • 25.10away · Emelec1:0
  • 17.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:4
  • 11.10Emelec3:2
  • 20.09Leones del Norte1:1
  • 13.09Mushuc Runa3:1

Libertad (ECU)

  • 25.10away · Leones del Norte1:4
  • 17.10Guayaquil City4:0
  • 09.10Leones del Norte3:0
  • 20.09away · Emelec2:1
  • 14.09Independiente del Valle2:3

Head to head

  • 17.10.2026Libertad (ECU) — Guayaquil City4:0
  • 16.08.2026Guayaquil City — Libertad (ECU)2:2
  • 22.04.2026Libertad (ECU) — Guayaquil City0:1
  • 10.10.2023Libertad (ECU) — Guayaquil City1:0
  • 06.05.2023Guayaquil City — Libertad (ECU)1:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Next matches

  • Libertad (ECU)Emelec7 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • Leones del NorteGuayaquil City8 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →