Swedish Allsvenskan, round 29 · Monday, 23 November, 21:00 (UTC+3)

Örgryte — Kalmar FF

Model prediction for 23 November

Örgryte23%

Draw28%

Kalmar FF48%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Kalmar FF are clear favourites: 48% against 23% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings Kalmar FF are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Kalmar FF higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Örgryte — No. 15, 19 pts; Kalmar FF — No. 13, 23 pts. A gap of 4 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Örgryte — Kalmar FF What is xG?		1.1–1.6
Örgryte not to lose		52%
Kalmar FF not to lose		77%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		53%
Total under 2.5		47%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Örgryte
Örgryte goals
Kalmar FF goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Örgryte	Kalmar FF
Goals scored per match	1.2	0.2
Goals conceded per match	2.0	1.4
xG per match	1.07	1.29
Opponents’ xG	2.02	0.98
Shots	10.3	13.7
On target	3.3	3.4
Corners	3.1	5.3
Cards	1.1	0.8
Possession, %	41	51

Averages per match: Örgryte — the last 10, Kalmar FF — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Örgryte

01.11away · Elfsborg1:2
29.10Mjällby1:2
24.10away · Djurgården2:2
18.10GAIS4:2
11.10away · Häcken0:3

Kalmar FF

02.11away · Mjällby0:0
29.10GAIS0:1
24.10Brommapojkarna0:3
19.10away · Degerfors2:1
12.10away · Malmö FF0:1

Head to head

05.07.2026Kalmar FF — Örgryte3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
12	Mjällby	27	6	9	12	30–43	-13	27
13	Kalmar FF	27	6	5	16	23–42	-19	23
14, Relegation play-off	Degerfors	27	5	5	17	22–46	-24	20
15, Relegation	Örgryte	27	4	7	16	33–60	-27	19
16, Relegation	Halmstads BK	27	4	5	18	18–51	-33	17

Season 2026

Full table

Allsvenskan on the same day

21:00
HammarbyIFK Göteborgpreliminary
78157
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →