Ligue 1, round 8 · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Parc des Princes
Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Paris Saint-Germain to win (81%), came true.
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: 81% against 7% for the opponent, draw 13%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Paris Saint-Germain are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- Paris Saint-Germain are 185 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Paris Saint-Germain: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Paris Saint-Germain 4 wins, Lyon 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon What is xG? | 2.5–0.9 | |
| Paris Saint-Germain not to lose | 93% | |
| Lyon not to lose | 19% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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Match events
- 31′Vítinha · Paris Saint-Germain
- 51′Maghnes Akliouche · Paris Saint-Germain
- 72′Senny Mayulu · Paris Saint-Germain1:0
- 74′Ernest Nuamah · Lyon
- 84′Mika Godts · Paris Saint-Germain2:0
Substitutions (9)
- 57′Mika Godts ↔ João Neves · Paris Saint-Germain
- 65′Lucas Hernández ↔ Warren Zaïre-Emery · Paris Saint-Germain
- 65′Senny Mayulu ↔ Ferrán Torres · Paris Saint-Germain
- 76′Noah Nartey ↔ Khalis Merah · Lyon
- 76′Ruben Kluivert ↔ Corentin Tolisso · Lyon
- 81′Quentin Ndjantou ↔ Maghnes Akliouche · Paris Saint-Germain
- 81′Lucas Beraldo ↔ Désiré Doué · Paris Saint-Germain
- 81′Kaïl Boudache ↔ Julien Duranville · Lyon
- 91′Rémi Himbert ↔ Tyler Morton · Lyon
Match statistics
Paris Saint-GermainLyon
- 0.87Expected goals (xG)0.62
- 68Possession, %32
- 17Shots8
- 10On target5
- 0Big chances0
- 7Corners4
- 8Fouls14
- 2Offsides1
- 2Yellow cards1
- 0Red cards0
Lineups
Paris Saint-Germain
- GKMatvey Safonov8.3
- DFIlya Zabarnyi7.4
- DFWillian Pacho7.8
- DFAchraf Hakimi (C)8.1
- MFWarren Zaïre-Emery65′7.3
- MFFabián Ruiz8.0
- MFVítinha8.1
- MFJoão Neves57′7.3
- FWDésiré Doué81′7.4
- FWFerrán Torres65′6.7
- FWMaghnes Akliouche81′7.5
Came on (5)
- FWMika Godts33′8.3
- MFLucas Beraldo9′
- MFSenny Mayulu25′7.5
- DFLucas Hernández25′6.1
- MFQuentin Ndjantou9′
Lyon
- GKDominik Greif6.6
- DFZachary Athekame6.2
- DFFelix Bacher6.2
- DFMoussa Niakhaté6.2
- DFAbner5.7
- MFTyler Morton89′6.3
- MFCorentin Tolisso (C)76′6.1
- MFKhalis Merah76′6.1
- MFTanner Tessmann6.3
- FWErnest Nuamah6.8
- FWJulien Duranville81′6.2
Came on (4)
- FWKaïl Boudache9′
- MFNoah Nartey14′6.2
- DFRuben Kluivert14′6.4
- FWRémi Himbert1′
Form
- 20.10Barcelona4:2
- 17.10away · Strasbourg3:1
- 14.10away · Manchester City4:2
- 10.10Le Mans3:1
- 20.09away · Marseille2:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon1:2
- 09.11.2025Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain2:3
- 23.02.2025Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain2:3
- 15.12.2024Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon3:1
- 25.05.2024Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 9 | 6 | +11 | 20 |
| 2, Champions League | Lille | 9 | 5 | +6 | 18 |
| 3, Champions League | Lyon | 9 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 4, Champions League qualifying | Paris FC | 9 | 5 | +6 | 17 |
Next matches
- Le HavreParis Saint-Germain30 October · Ligue 1614802The most likely outcome came true: 21:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 1:3.3.3
- LyonAngers1 November · Ligue 16820121The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 3:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →