Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Friday, 20 November, 03:30 (UTC+3)

São Paulo — Fluminense

Model prediction for 20 November

São Paulo43%

Draw29%

Fluminense28%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

São Paulo are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings São Paulo are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: São Paulo — No. 10, 43 pts; Fluminense — No. 4, 54 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
Last 5 meetings: São Paulo 2 wins, Fluminense 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: São Paulo — Fluminense What is xG?		1.3–1.1
São Paulo not to lose		72%
Fluminense not to lose		57%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		44%
Total under 2.5		56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap São Paulo
São Paulo goals
Fluminense goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	São Paulo	Fluminense
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.3	1.4
xG per match	1.03	1.14
Opponents’ xG	1.06	1.50
Shots	13.5	11.6
On target	3.9	4.1
Corners	6.4	3.6
Cards	2.1	2.0
Possession, %	51	59

Averages per match: São Paulo — the last 10, Fluminense — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

São Paulo

29.10away · Bahia2:3
24.10away · Mirassol1:1
18.10Vasco da Gama1:0
11.10Vitória2:1
08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2

Fluminense

29.10Internacional2:1
25.10away · Chapecoense1:2
22.10away · Palmeiras1:0
18.10Santos1:2
15.10Palmeiras1:2

Head to head

17.05.2026Fluminense — São Paulo2:1
28.11.2025Fluminense — São Paulo6:0
27.07.2025São Paulo — Fluminense3:1
02.09.2024Fluminense — São Paulo2:0
14.05.2024São Paulo — Fluminense2:1

Full record: 15 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Copa Libertadores	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52–46	+6	57
4, Copa Libertadores	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52–42	+10	54
5, Copa Libertadores	Athletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50–40	+10	54
9, Copa Sudamericana	Santos	34	12	11	11	50–49	+1	47
10, Copa Sudamericana	São Paulo	33	12	7	14	39–39	0	43
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

01:30
Vasco da GamaInternacionalpreliminary
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
01:30
VitóriaRB Bragantinopreliminary
373033
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →