Brazilian Serie A, round 35 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
Vasco da Gama — Internacional
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Vasco da Gama are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vasco da Gama are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Vasco da Gama are 77 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Vasco da Gama — No. 15, 38 pts; Internacional — No. 14, 38 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Vasco da Gama 2 wins, Internacional 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vasco da Gama — Internacional What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Vasco da Gama not to lose | 81% | |
| Internacional not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama goals
- Internacional goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Vasco da Gama | Internacional |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.01 | 1.12 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.46 | 1.32 |
| Shots | 15.7 | 14.8 |
| On target | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 1.4 | 3.9 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 43 |
Form
- 01.11away · Palmeiras0:1
- 30.10Flamengo1:4
- 25.10Corinthians3:2
- 21.10Boca Juniors1:3
- 18.10away · São Paulo0:1
- 04.11Coritiba1:0
- 29.10away · Fluminense1:2
- 24.10Botafogo3:0
- 17.10away · Mirassol0:2
- 11.10away · Grêmio1:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Internacional — Vasco da Gama4:1
- 29.11.2025Vasco da Gama — Internacional5:1
- 28.07.2025Internacional — Vasco da Gama1:1
- 22.11.2024Vasco da Gama — Internacional0:1
- 08.07.2024Internacional — Vasco da Gama1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Botafogo | 33 | 10 | -8 | 39 |
| 14 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | -4 | 38 |
| 15 | Vasco da Gama | 32 | 10 | -9 | 38 |
| 16 | Vitória | 33 | 10 | -13 | 38 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- VitóriaRB Bragantinopreliminary3730331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- São PauloFluminensepreliminary4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →