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Ukrainian Premier League, round 11 · Friday, 30 October, (UTC+3) · Arena Lviv

Shakhtar Donetsk — Obolon Kyiv

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Shakhtar Donetsk91%
Draw7%
Obolon Kyiv2%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Shakhtar Donetsk to win (91%), came true.

Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 91% against 2% for the opponent, draw 7%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 30%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 2.1 goals per match stronger.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk are 410 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 5 wins, Obolon Kyiv 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk — Obolon Kyiv What is xG?2.7–0.4
Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose98%
Obolon Kyiv not to lose9%
No draw93%
Both teams to score: yes30%
Both teams to score: no70%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Shakhtar Donetsk
  • Shakhtar Donetsk goals
  • Obolon Kyiv goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 63′Alisson Santana · Shakhtar Donetsk
  2. 70′Alisson Santana · Shakhtar Donetsk1:0
  3. 85′Alisson Santana · Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
  4. 87′Oleksandr Antonenko · Obolon Kyiv
  5. 89′Lassina Traoré · Shakhtar Donetsk
Substitutions (11)
  1. 44′Denys Ustymenko ↔ Serhii Sukhanov · Obolon Kyiv
  2. 61′Luca Meirelles ↔ Dmytro Kryskiv · Shakhtar Donetsk
  3. 61′Alisson Santana ↔ Bruninho · Shakhtar Donetsk
  4. 61′Vinícius Tobias ↔ Oleksandr Karavaev · Shakhtar Donetsk
  5. 78′Marlon Gomes ↔ Newerton · Shakhtar Donetsk
  6. 78′Igor Medynsky ↔ Maksym Chekh · Obolon Kyiv
  7. 78′Gleiker Mendoza ↔ Isaque · Shakhtar Donetsk
  8. 78′Pavlo Polegenko ↔ Dmytro Myshnyov · Obolon Kyiv
  9. 86′Andriy Matkevych ↔ Roman Volokhatyi · Obolon Kyiv
  10. 87′Denys Teslyuk ↔ Oleg Slobodyan · Obolon Kyiv
  11. 88′Yegor Nazaryna ↔ Oleg Ocheretko · Shakhtar Donetsk

Match statistics

Shakhtar DonetskObolon Kyiv
  • 76Possession, %24
  • 14Shots1
  • 6On target0
  • 8Corners0
  • 2Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Shakhtar Donetsk

  1. GKDmytro Riznyk
  2. DFValeriy Bondar
  3. DFIrakli Azarovi
  4. DFOleksandr Karavaev61′
  5. DFAlaa Ghram
  6. MFOleg Ocheretko88′
  7. MFDmytro Kryskiv61′
  8. MFIsaque78′
  9. FWBruninho61′
  10. FWLassina Traoré
  11. FWNewerton78′
Came on (6)
  1. MFYegor Nazaryna2′
  2. FWGleiker Mendoza12′
  3. DFVinícius Tobias29′
  4. FWLuca Meirelles29′
  5. FWAlisson Santana29′
  6. MFMarlon Gomes12′

Obolon Kyiv

  1. GKKyrylo Barantsov
  2. DFDmytro Kapinus
  3. DFVitaliy Yermakov
  4. DFKyrylo Prokopchuk
  5. DFYevgeniy Shevchenko
  6. MFDmytro Myshnyov78′
  7. MFMaksym Chekh78′
  8. MFTaras Moroz
  9. MFOleg Slobodyan87′
  10. MFRoman Volokhatyi86′
  11. FWSerhii Sukhanov44′
Came on (5)
  1. DFPavlo Polegenko12′
  2. FWAndriy Matkevych4′
  3. FWDenys Ustymenko46′
  4. FWDenys Teslyuk3′
  5. MFIgor Medynsky12′

Form

Shakhtar Donetsk

  • 24.10Zorya0:0
  • 21.10away · Inter0:1
  • 17.10FC Kolos Kovalivka2:1
  • 14.10AEK Athens3:1
  • 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0

Obolon Kyiv

  • 23.10away · Polissya Zhytomyr0:3
  • 16.10Veres Rivne2:0
  • 18.09away · Chornomorets Odesa1:1
  • 12.09away · LNZ Cherkasy1:3
  • 05.09away · FC Kharkiv0:5

Head to head

  • 13.05.2026Shakhtar Donetsk — Obolon Kyiv3:1
  • 22.11.2025Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk0:6
  • 29.03.2025Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk0:2
  • 23.09.2024Shakhtar Donetsk — Obolon Kyiv4:0
  • 30.03.2024Obolon Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk0:3

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Champions League qualifyingShakhtar Donetsk1191122–5+1728
2, Europa League or Conference LeaguePolissya Zhytomyr1081123–8+1525
13, Relegation play-offLiviy Bereh91536–8-28
14, Relegation play-offObolon Kyiv101454–17-137
15, RelegationKryvbas91357–15-86

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Shakhtar DonetskSporting CP3 November · Champions League
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
  • Obolon KyivLiviy Bereh6 November · Ukrainian Premier League
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 91% will not happen in roughly 9 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →