UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Shakhtar Donetsk — Sporting CP
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, Sporting CP 34%, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk — Sporting CP What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 66% | |
| Sporting CP not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Sporting CP goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
- 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
- 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
- 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
- 05.09away · Karpaty2:1
- 13.10away · Lens2:0
- 09.10away · Braga3:1
- 19.09Arouca2:2
- 13.09away · Famalicão1:1
- 09.09Galatasaray3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Straight to the round of 16 | Barcelona | 2 | 2 | +7 | 6 |
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | Sporting CP | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
Champions League on the same day
- GalatasarayVfB Stuttgartpreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- BarcelonaAston Villapreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Atlético MadridBayern Münchenpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- Manchester UnitedRomapreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- FeyenoordInterpreliminary2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Bodø/GlimtLillepreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- VillarrealParis Saint-Germainpreliminary1923572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- LASKSlovan Bratislavapreliminary7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →