Swedish Allsvenskan, round 29 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)
Sirius — Djurgården
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Djurgården are slightly stronger: 40% against 33%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sirius are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Djurgården higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Sirius — No. 1, 58 pts; Djurgården — No. 3, 52 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Djurgården: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Sirius 1 win, Djurgården 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sirius — Djurgården What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Sirius not to lose | 60% | |
| Djurgården not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Sirius
- Sirius goals
- Djurgården goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Sirius | Djurgården |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| xG per match | 1.49 | 1.62 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| Shots | 13.1 | 11.2 |
| On target | 4.1 | 4.6 |
| Corners | 6.3 | 3.6 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 52 |
Form
- 01.11Degerfors2:1
- 28.10away · IFK Göteborg1:1
- 24.10Örgryte2:2
- 16.10away · Brommapojkarna2:0
- 11.10away · Hammarby1:0
Head to head
- 18.05.2026Djurgården — Sirius2:3
- 29.09.2025Djurgården — Sirius8:2
- 05.04.2025Sirius — Djurgården0:1
- 25.08.2024Sirius — Djurgården0:1
- 14.04.2024Djurgården — Sirius2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Sirius | 27 | 18 | +24 | 58 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Hammarby | 27 | 17 | +34 | 55 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Djurgården | 27 | 16 | +30 | 52 |
| 4 | Häcken | 27 | 13 | +18 | 49 |
Allsvenskan on the same day
- HäckenElfsborgpreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- BrommapojkarnaHalmstads BKpreliminary5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →