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Paraguayan Primera Division · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Sportivo San Lorenzo — Cerro Porteño

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Model prediction and result

1:3Came true
Sportivo San Lorenzo12%
Draw23%
Cerro Porteño65%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Cerro Porteño to win (65%), came true.

Cerro Porteño are clear favourites: 65% against 12% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 39%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Cerro Porteño are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Cerro Porteño are 191 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Sportivo San Lorenzo: winless in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Sportivo San Lorenzo 0 wins, Cerro Porteño 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sportivo San Lorenzo — Cerro Porteño What is xG?0.6–1.8
Sportivo San Lorenzo not to lose35%
Cerro Porteño not to lose88%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes39%
Both teams to score: no61%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sportivo San Lorenzo
  • Sportivo San Lorenzo goals
  • Cerro Porteño goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 5′Leandro Esteche · own goal · Cerro Porteño0:1
  2. 36′Pablo Vegetti · Cerro Porteño0:2
  3. 41′Luis Cáceres · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  4. 47′Alfredo Barrios · Sportivo San Lorenzo1:2
  5. 51′Cesar Bobadilla · Cerro Porteño
  6. 51′Lucas Merolla · Cerro Porteño
  7. 66′Hugo González · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  8. 83′Jorge Morel · Cerro Porteño
  9. 84′Alexis Doldán · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  10. 91′Ignacio Aliseda · Cerro Porteño1:3
  11. 95′Marcelo Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Marcelo Ferreira ↔ Santiago Salcedo · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  2. 46′Lucas Cohener ↔ Ángel Benítez · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  3. 46′Kevin Ferreira ↔ Rodrigo Amarilla · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  4. 65′Ignacio Aliseda ↔ Derlis Rodríguez · Cerro Porteño
  5. 65′Ariel Gamarra ↔ Cesar Bobadilla · Cerro Porteño
  6. 77′Alexis Cañete ↔ Mateo Klimowicz · Cerro Porteño
  7. 78′Isaías Fretes ↔ Daniel Meza · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  8. 78′Elías Ortiz ↔ Hugo González · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  9. 86′Sergio Araújo ↔ Pablo Vegetti · Cerro Porteño
  10. 86′Gastón Giménez ↔ Carlos Chena · Cerro Porteño

Match statistics

Sportivo San LorenzoCerro Porteño
  • 47Possession, %53
  • 11Shots20
  • 5On target6
  • 1Big chances5
  • 5Corners3
  • 11Fouls10
  • 2Offsides3
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Sportivo San Lorenzo

  1. GKFranco6.3
  2. DFLuis Cáceres6.6
  3. DFAlexis Doldán6.7
  4. DFLeandro Esteche5.2
  5. DFDaniel Meza78′6.5
  6. MFGastón Gerzel5.9
  7. MFÁngel Benítez45′5.7
  8. MFRodrigo Amarilla45′6.0
  9. MFHugo González78′6.3
  10. FWSantiago Salcedo (C)45′6.0
  11. FWAlfredo Barrios7.5
Came on (3)
  1. FWMarcelo Ferreira45′5.8
  2. MFKevin Ferreira45′6.1
  3. MFElías Ortiz12′5.9

Cerro Porteño

  1. GKÁngel Martínez7.1
  2. DFGustavo Velázquez (C)7.8
  3. DFBlás Riveros7.7
  4. DFLucas Merolla7.8
  5. DFIván Ramírez8.3
  6. MFJorge Morel7.4
  7. MFCarlos Chena86′7.8
  8. MFCesar Bobadilla65′6.9
  9. FWMateo Klimowicz77′7.7
  10. FWPablo Vegetti86′8.2
  11. FWDerlis Rodríguez65′7.8
Came on (5)
  1. MFAriel Gamarra25′6.1
  2. MFIgnacio Aliseda25′7.6
  3. FWSergio Araújo4′
  4. DFAlexis Cañete13′6.5
  5. MFGastón Giménez4′

Form

Sportivo San Lorenzo

  • 19.10away · Luqueño2:3
  • 10.10Sportivo Trinidense1:1
  • 03.10away · Guaraní1:1
  • 28.09Recoleta0:0
  • 20.09Olimpia0:3

Cerro Porteño

  • 18.10Sportivo Ameliano2:2
  • 11.10away · Luqueño3:0
  • 06.102 de Mayo0:2
  • 27.09away · Sportivo Trinidense1:2
  • 20.09Rubio Ñú1:0

Head to head

  • 16.08.2026Cerro Porteño — Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0
  • 29.03.2026Cerro Porteño — Sportivo San Lorenzo2:0
  • 28.01.2026Sportivo San Lorenzo — Cerro Porteño2:4

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

  • Sportivo San LorenzoLibertad1 November · Paraguayan Primera
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
  • Cerro PorteñoOlimpia1 November · Paraguayan Primera
    XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 0:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →