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Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio ueno La Nueva Olla

Cerro Porteño — Olimpia

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Model prediction and result

0:2Missed
Cerro Porteño36%
Draw30%
Olimpia35%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.

Evenly matched: Cerro Porteño 36%, Olimpia 35%, draw 30%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Olimpia: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Cerro Porteño 1 win, Olimpia 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cerro Porteño — Olimpia What is xG?1.3–1.3
Cerro Porteño not to lose65%
Olimpia not to lose64%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Cerro Porteño
  • Cerro Porteño goals
  • Olimpia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 13′Eduardo Delmás · Olimpia0:1
  2. 23′Bryan Bentaberry · Olimpia
  3. 67′Romeo Benítez · Olimpia0:2
  4. 68′Romeo Benítez · Olimpia
  5. 69′Cesar Bobadilla · Cerro Porteño
  6. 69′Sebastián Quintana · Olimpia
  7. 77′Sebastián Ferreira · Olimpia
  8. 79′Gustavo Velázquez · Cerro Porteño
  9. 89′Pablo Vegetti · Cerro Porteño
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Gastón Giménez ↔ Carlos Chena · Cerro Porteño
  2. 46′Alexis Cañete ↔ Lucas Merolla · Cerro Porteño
  3. 55′Romeo Benítez ↔ Franco Alfonso · Olimpia
  4. 55′Rodney Redes ↔ Alex Franco · Olimpia
  5. 64′Sebastián Ferreira ↔ Gabriel Ávalos · Olimpia
  6. 64′Richard Sánchez ↔ Eduardo Delmás · Olimpia
  7. 65′Derlis Rodríguez ↔ Mateo Klimowicz · Cerro Porteño
  8. 75′Sergio Araújo ↔ Cesar Bobadilla · Cerro Porteño
  9. 92′Jonathan Torres ↔ Ignacio Aliseda · Cerro Porteño
  10. 94′Gustavo Vargas ↔ Raúl Cáceres · Olimpia

Match statistics

Cerro PorteñoOlimpia
  • 71Possession, %29
  • 24Shots12
  • 6On target7
  • 5Big chances2
  • 10Corners0
  • 5Fouls12
  • 0Offsides1
  • 3Yellow cards4
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Cerro Porteño

  1. GKÁngel Martínez6.7
  2. DFGustavo Velázquez (C)7.0
  3. DFBlás Riveros7.4
  4. DFLucas Merolla45′6.6
  5. DFIván Ramírez6.9
  6. MFJorge Morel6.9
  7. MFCarlos Chena45′6.6
  8. MFCesar Bobadilla75′6.5
  9. FWMateo Klimowicz65′6.6
  10. FWPablo Vegetti6.3
  11. FWIgnacio Aliseda89′6.1
Came on (5)
  1. FWJonathan Torres1′
  2. FWSergio Araújo15′6.4
  3. DFAlexis Cañete45′7.0
  4. MFGastón Giménez45′6.9
  5. MFDerlis Rodríguez25′5.9

Olimpia

  1. GKGastón Olveira8.3
  2. DFMateo Gamarra7.8
  3. DFRaúl Cáceres89′7.2
  4. DFAlan Rodríguez8.1
  5. DFBryan Bentaberry6.9
  6. MFFernando Cardozo6.7
  7. MFRichard Ortiz (C)7.5
  8. FWGabriel Ávalos64′6.7
  9. FWFranco Alfonso55′6.6
  10. FWEduardo Delmás64′8.3
  11. FWAlex Franco55′6.7
Came on (5)
  1. MFRichard Sánchez26′6.0
  2. FWSebastián Ferreira26′6.1
  3. MFRomeo Benítez35′7.7
  4. FWRodney Redes35′6.5
  5. DFGustavo Vargas1′

Form

Cerro Porteño

  • 26.10away · Sportivo San Lorenzo3:1
  • 18.10Sportivo Ameliano2:2
  • 11.10away · Luqueño3:0
  • 06.102 de Mayo0:2
  • 27.09away · Sportivo Trinidense1:2

Olimpia

  • 25.10away · Sportivo Ameliano3:2
  • 18.102 de Mayo3:0
  • 11.10away · Rubio Ñú0:0
  • 07.10Nacional (PAR)1:1
  • 29.09away · Libertad1:0

Head to head

  • 23.08.2026Olimpia — Cerro Porteño2:1
  • 19.04.2026Olimpia — Cerro Porteño3:0
  • 22.02.2026Cerro Porteño — Olimpia0:1
  • 19.10.2025Cerro Porteño — Olimpia1:1
  • 03.08.2025Olimpia — Cerro Porteño2:3

Full record: 16 meetings →

Next matches

  • LibertadCerro Porteño5 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
  • OlimpiaRecoleta5 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →