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Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Gunther Vogel

Sportivo San Lorenzo — Libertad

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Sportivo San Lorenzo12%
Draw21%
Libertad67%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Libertad to win (67%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 67% fails in about 33 matches out of 100 on average.

Libertad are clear favourites: 67% against 12% for the opponent, draw 21%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 41%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Libertad are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
  • Libertad are 209 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Sportivo San Lorenzo: winless in 5.
  • Last 3 meetings: Sportivo San Lorenzo 0 wins, Libertad 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sportivo San Lorenzo — Libertad What is xG?0.7–1.9
Sportivo San Lorenzo not to lose33%
Libertad not to lose88%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes41%
Both teams to score: no59%
Total over 2.548%
Total under 2.552%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sportivo San Lorenzo
  • Sportivo San Lorenzo goals
  • Libertad goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 7′Marcelo Fernández · Libertad0:1
  2. 22′Franco Aragón · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  3. 34′Marcelo Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo1:1
  4. 48′Néstor Giménez · Libertad
  5. 95′Santiago Salcedo · penalty · Sportivo San Lorenzo2:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Robert Rojas ↔ Nicolás Freire · Libertad
  2. 46′Lorenzo Melgarejo ↔ Marcelo Fernández · Libertad
  3. 46′Federico Carrizo ↔ Hugo Fernández · Libertad
  4. 46′Héctor Villamayor ↔ Gastón Gerzel · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  5. 59′Gustavo Aguilar ↔ Agustín Manzur · Libertad
  6. 66′Ángel Benítez ↔ Lucas Cohener · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  7. 66′Kevin Fernández ↔ Kevin Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  8. 71′Alexis Fretes ↔ Ivan Ramírez · Libertad
  9. 71′Santiago Salcedo ↔ Marcelo Ferreira · Sportivo San Lorenzo
  10. 88′Rodrigo Amarilla ↔ Alfredo Barrios · Sportivo San Lorenzo

Match statistics

Sportivo San LorenzoLibertad
  • 38Possession, %62
  • 17Shots19
  • 8On target7
  • 2Big chances2
  • 7Corners3
  • 13Fouls9
  • 4Offsides4
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Form

Sportivo San Lorenzo

  • 26.10Cerro Porteño1:3
  • 19.10away · Luqueño2:3
  • 10.10Sportivo Trinidense1:1
  • 03.10away · Guaraní1:1
  • 28.09Recoleta0:0

Libertad

  • 24.10Luqueño1:0
  • 19.10away · Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 12.10Guaraní2:2
  • 05.10away · Recoleta2:1
  • 29.09Olimpia0:1

Head to head

  • 25.08.2026Libertad — Sportivo San Lorenzo1:0
  • 02.05.2026Libertad — Sportivo San Lorenzo5:0
  • 03.03.2026Sportivo San Lorenzo — Libertad0:7

Full record: 4 meetings →

Next matches

  • Nacional (PAR)Sportivo San Lorenzo4 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
  • LibertadCerro Porteño5 November · Paraguayan Primera
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

  • LuqueñoNacional (PAR)
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
  • Cerro PorteñoOlimpia
    XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 0:2. Model's score: 2:2.2.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →