Swiss Super League, round 13 · Sunday, 8 November, 16:00 (UTC+3)

St. Gallen — Lugano

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Model prediction for 8 November

St. Gallen42%

Draw27%

Lugano31%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

In short

St. Gallen are slightly stronger: 42% against 31%, draw 27%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 67%.

Why

By the strength ratings St. Gallen are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: St. Gallen — No. 5, 19 pts; Lugano — No. 1, 34 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
Lugano: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: St. Gallen 3 wins, Lugano 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: St. Gallen — Lugano What is xG?		1.7–1.5
St. Gallen not to lose		69%
Lugano not to lose		58%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		67%
Both teams to score: no		33%
Total over 2.5		64%
Total under 2.5		36%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap St. Gallen
St. Gallen goals
Lugano goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	St. Gallen	Lugano
Goals scored per match	1.4	3.1
Goals conceded per match	1.9	1.1
xG per match	1.86	1.80
Opponents’ xG	1.38	1.34
Shots	18.8	17.3
On target	6.3	6.0
Corners	6.6	5.3
Cards	1.9	3.2
Possession, %	48	53

Averages per match: St. Gallen — the last 10, Lugano — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

St. Gallen

31.10Servette2:1
24.10away · Young Boys0:2
11.10Lausanne1:0
20.09away · Basel3:1
16.09away · Lugano1:4

Lugano

01.11Basel2:1
25.10away · Thun3:2
22.10away · Getafe5:2
15.10FK Crvena Zvezda3:2
10.10Luzern4:0

Head to head

16.09.2026Lugano — St. Gallen4:1
10.05.2026Lugano — St. Gallen1:2
17.03.2026St. Gallen — Lugano1:1
26.11.2025Lugano — St. Gallen1:3
13.09.2025St. Gallen — Lugano1:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	Lugano	12	11	1	0	36–10	+26	34
2, Championship round	Young Boys	12	7	4	1	38–23	+15	25
4, Championship round	FC Zürich	12	6	2	4	25–26	-1	20
5, Championship round	St. Gallen	12	6	1	5	19–22	-3	19
6, Championship round	Servette	12	5	1	6	17–16	+1	16

Season 2026/27

Full table

Swiss Super League on the same day

18:30
ServetteFC Zürich
512524
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
18:30
ThunBasel
422732
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →