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Austrian Bundesliga, round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Sturm Graz — Salzburg

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Model prediction for 8 November

Sturm Graz33%
Draw29%
Salzburg37%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Evenly matched: Sturm Graz 33%, Salzburg 37%, draw 29%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 67%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Sturm Graz — No. 4, 19 pts; Salzburg — No. 2, 27 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Sturm Graz: unbeaten in 4; Salzburg: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sturm Graz 1 win, Salzburg 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sturm Graz — Salzburg What is xG?1.5–1.6
Sturm Graz not to lose63%
Salzburg not to lose67%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes67%
Both teams to score: no33%
Total over 2.561%
Total under 2.539%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Sturm Graz
  • Sturm Graz goals
  • Salzburg goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatSturm GrazSalzburg
Goals scored per match1.52.3
Goals conceded per match1.41.0
xG per match1.721.99
Opponents’ xG1.601.28
Shots15.516.9
On target4.96.4
Corners5.35.0
Cards2.51.7
Possession, %4457

Averages per match: Sturm Graz — the last 10, Salzburg — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Sturm Graz

  • 01.11away · Wolfsberger AC1:1
  • 25.10Ried2:2
  • 22.10Marseille1:0
  • 18.10Grazer AK6:1
  • 15.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3

Salzburg

  • 01.11Austria Lustenau5:1
  • 25.10away · LASK3:1
  • 22.10away · NK Celje2:2
  • 18.10Altach3:0
  • 15.10Milan0:4

Head to head

  • 20.09.2026Salzburg — Sturm Graz3:0
  • 03.05.2026Salzburg — Sturm Graz1:1
  • 20.03.2026Sturm Graz — Salzburg1:1
  • 09.11.2025Sturm Graz — Salzburg1:1
  • 20.09.2025Salzburg — Sturm Graz0:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Championship roundRapid Wien11100133–9+2430
2, Championship roundSalzburg1183029–6+2327
3, Championship roundLASK1171326–13+1322
4, Championship roundSturm Graz1154219–13+619
5, Championship roundHartberg1152420–19+117

Season 2026/27

Full table

Austrian Bundesliga on the same day

  • HartbergAltach
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.6
  • WSG TirolAustria Wien
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →