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Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Tlahuicole

Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz

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Model prediction for 5 November

Tlaxcala FC42%
Draw28%
Atlético La Paz30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Tlaxcala FC are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 66%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Tlaxcala FC — No. 8, 22 pts; Atlético La Paz — No. 1, 30 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Tlaxcala FC: unbeaten in 5; Atlético La Paz: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Tlaxcala FC 0 wins, Atlético La Paz 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz What is xG?1.8–1.5
Tlaxcala FC not to lose70%
Atlético La Paz not to lose58%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes66%
Both teams to score: no34%
Total over 2.560%
Total under 2.540%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Tlaxcala FC
  • Tlaxcala FC goals
  • Atlético La Paz goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatTlaxcala FCAtlético La Paz
Goals scored per match1.82.2
Goals conceded per match1.91.0
xG per match0.170.20
Opponents’ xG0.020.08
Shots10.414.7
On target4.15.7
Corners4.14.1
Cards3.32.9
Possession, %4551

Averages per match: Tlaxcala FC — the last 9, Atlético La Paz — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Tlaxcala FC

  1. GKNorberto Bedolla
  2. DFIsmael Govea (C)
  3. DFEdson García
  4. DFErick Robles
  5. DFJulian Freyfeld
  6. MFAndrés Iniestra
  7. MFPablo González
  8. MFMiguel Ramírez
  9. MFMario Trejo
  10. MFEdson Santos
  11. FWDaniel Álvarez
Bench (10)
  1. FWJesús Hernández
  2. FWRaúl Camacho
  3. DFCristian González
  4. MFChristian
  5. GKAbraham Nuño
  6. MFFernando Plascencia
  7. DFRoger Hernandez
  8. MFGiovani Hernández
  9. MFJesse Zamudio
  10. MFJuan Blanco

Atlético La Paz

  1. GKGil Alcalá
  2. DFHoracio Torres
  3. DFJuan Daccarett
  4. DFSergio Vázquez
  5. MFÁngel Robles
  6. MFMarco García
  7. MFJohan Alonzo
  8. MFUlíses Jaimes
  9. MFÉdgar Alaffita
  10. MFÓscar Millán
  11. FWMartín Barragán (C)
Bench (10)
  1. FWIsrael Larios
  2. MFEduardo Torres
  3. DFCarlos Robles
  4. MFDaniel Alvarado
  5. GKJonathan Estrada
  6. FWRicardo Rentería
  7. MFFernando Illescas
  8. MFDaniel Hernández
  9. FWJordi Ferrer
  10. FWLuis Chiu

Form

Tlaxcala FC

  • 01.11away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:0
  • 25.10Correcaminos de la UAT2:0
  • 17.10away · Atlético La Paz2:2
  • 11.10Piratas4:2
  • 04.10away · Atlético Morelia1:1

Atlético La Paz

  • 31.10Dorados3:0
  • 25.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1
  • 17.10Tlaxcala FC2:2
  • 10.10away · Tapatío4:2
  • 03.10Venados FC1:2

Head to head

  • 17.10.2026Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC2:2
  • 08.03.2026Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC2:0
  • 28.09.2025Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz3:3
  • 11.01.2025Atlético La Paz — Tlaxcala FC4:4
  • 28.07.2024Tlaxcala FC — Atlético La Paz0:2

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Atlético La Paz1593336–18+1830
2Leones Negros1593334–20+1430
7Alacranes de Durango1573521–15+624
8Tlaxcala FC1564529–27+222
9Alebrijes Oaxaca1571715–25-1022

Season 2026/27

Full table

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →