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Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Venados FC — Atlético Morelia

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Model prediction for 5 November

Venados FC49%
Draw27%
Atlético Morelia24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Venados FC are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Venados FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Venados FC are 85 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Venados FC — No. 6, 25 pts; Atlético Morelia — No. 3, 26 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Venados FC: unbeaten in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Venados FC 2 wins, Atlético Morelia 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Venados FC — Atlético Morelia What is xG?1.8–1.2
Venados FC not to lose76%
Atlético Morelia not to lose51%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes61%
Both teams to score: no39%
Total over 2.556%
Total under 2.544%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Venados FC
  • Venados FC goals
  • Atlético Morelia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatVenados FCAtlético Morelia
Goals scored per match2.32.0
Goals conceded per match1.91.3
xG per match0.130.06
Opponents’ xG0.100.14
Shots15.012.2
On target7.06.2
Corners6.46.6
Cards2.72.6
Possession, %4853

Averages per match: Venados FC — the last 9, Atlético Morelia — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Venados FC

  1. GKSantiago Perez
  2. DFErick Torres
  3. DFMauricio Aguilar
  4. DFJesús Moreno
  5. DFSantiago Montiel
  6. MFSantiago Naveda
  7. MFPaul Kilani
  8. MFBrandón Ochoa
  9. FWDuilio Tejeda
  10. FWSleyther Lora (C)
  11. FWMáximo Torres
Bench (10)
  1. DFMaximiliano Pinela
  2. DFIdekel Domínguez
  3. GKRubén Castellanos
  4. DFSebastian Saucedo
  5. MFAdolfo Domínguez
  6. MFLuis Macías
  7. FWJardel Cejudo
  8. MFSantiago Benitez
  9. MFMarco Montelongo
  10. DFÁxel Grijalva

Atlético Morelia

  1. GKRamón Pasquel
  2. DFRené López
  3. DFRaúl Sandoval
  4. DFDaniel Zamora
  5. DFJose Van Rankin
  6. MFJosué Martínez (C)
  7. MFDiego Aguilar
  8. MFMisael Domínguez
  9. FWMichell Rodríguez
  10. FWMauro Nambo
  11. FWAlonso Flores
Bench (10)
  1. DFGabriel Martínez
  2. MFVíctor López
  3. DFRobert Castellanos
  4. MFPaulo Romero
  5. FWAnder Izarra
  6. GKRoberto Galan
  7. FWOrlando Botello
  8. MFEdson Castellanos
  9. MFJuan Conejo
  10. DFEdgar Sanchez

Form

Venados FC

  • 31.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:0
  • 25.10Alacranes de Durango3:2
  • 18.10away · Cancún FC1:1
  • 11.10Leones Negros1:1
  • 03.10away · Atlético La Paz2:1

Atlético Morelia

  • 01.11away · Alacranes de Durango1:3
  • 26.10away · Tapatío2:1
  • 18.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
  • 10.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:1
  • 04.10Tlaxcala FC1:1

Head to head

  • 27.09.2026Venados FC — Atlético Morelia2:1
  • 15.02.2026Atlético Morelia — Venados FC2:1
  • 05.09.2025Venados FC — Atlético Morelia2:2
  • 03.03.2025Atlético Morelia — Venados FC1:0
  • 14.09.2024Venados FC — Atlético Morelia2:1

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2Leones Negros1593334–20+1430
3Atlético Morelia1582526–19+726
4Piratas1574427–15+1225
5Cancún FC1574428–18+1025
6Venados FC1574431–25+625
7Alacranes de Durango1573521–15+624

Season 2026/27

Full table

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →