Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 9 November, (UTC+3)
Tolima — Millonarios
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 9 November
In short
Tolima are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tolima are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Tolima — No. 10, 23 pts; Millonarios — No. 6, 26 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Millonarios: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Tolima 2 wins, Millonarios 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tolima — Millonarios What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| Tolima not to lose | 75% | |
| Millonarios not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Tolima
- Tolima goals
- Millonarios goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Tolima | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 0.89 | 1.26 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.74 | 0.90 |
| Shots | 15.4 | 15.3 |
| On target | 4.8 | 6.7 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 4.8 |
| Cards | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 50 |
Form
- 03.11away · Deportivo Pereira3:1
- 26.10Deportivo Pasto0:1
- 18.10away · Águilas Doradas1:2
- 12.10away · CD Jaguares2:3
- 09.10away · Atlético Nacional0:0
- 21.10Once Caldas1:1
- 18.10CD Jaguares4:1
- 09.10away · Fortaleza FC1:1
- 30.09away · Independiente Medellín2:2
- 25.09away · Atlético Nacional1:1
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Millonarios — Tolima2:0
- 18.08.2025Tolima — Millonarios3:1
- 03.03.2025Millonarios — Tolima2:0
- 03.08.2024Millonarios — Tolima1:0
- 04.02.2024Tolima — Millonarios2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | +6 | 28 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 17 | 8 | 0 | 26 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | +3 | 24 |
| 10 | Tolima | 17 | 6 | +1 | 23 |
| 11 | Cúcuta | 16 | 6 | -6 | 21 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 2528482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.5
- 4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →