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Chilean Liga de Primera, round 24 · Thursday, 29 October, (UTC+3) · Claro Arena

Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Universidad Católica62%
Draw21%
Audax Italiano17%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Universidad Católica to win (62%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.

Universidad Católica are clear favourites: 62% against 17% for the opponent, draw 21%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Universidad Católica are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Universidad Católica are 188 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Universidad Católica 2 wins, Audax Italiano 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano What is xG?2.0–1.0
Universidad Católica not to lose83%
Audax Italiano not to lose38%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.558%
Total under 2.542%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Universidad Católica
  • Universidad Católica goals
  • Audax Italiano goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 28′Fernando Zampedri · Universidad Católica1:0
  2. 34′Enzo Ferrario · Audax Italiano
  3. 42′Raimundo Rebolledo · Audax Italiano
  4. 48′Fernando Zuqui · Universidad Católica
  5. 48′Michael Fuentes · Audax Italiano
  6. 49′Paolo Guajardo · Audax Italiano
  7. 50′Clemente Montes · Universidad Católica
  8. 55′César Pinares · penalty · Audax Italiano1:1
  9. 59′César Pinares · Audax Italiano
  10. 88′Felipe Salomoni · Audax Italiano
  11. 90′Fernando Zampedri · Universidad Católica
  12. 96′Tomás Ahumada · Audax Italiano
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Federico Mateos ↔ Mario Sandoval · Audax Italiano
  2. 46′Daniel Gónzalez ↔ Justo Giani · Universidad Católica
  3. 57′Matías Palavecino ↔ Alfred Canales · Universidad Católica
  4. 57′Sebastián Arancibia ↔ Daniel Gónzalez · Universidad Católica
  5. 65′Franco Troyansky ↔ Diego Coelho · Audax Italiano
  6. 72′Oliver Rojas ↔ César Pinares · Audax Italiano
  7. 72′Diego Valencia ↔ Eugenio Mena · Universidad Católica
  8. 79′Martín Gómez ↔ Clemente Montes · Universidad Católica
  9. 83′Diego Monreal ↔ Paolo Guajardo · Audax Italiano
  10. 83′Nicolás Orellana ↔ Giovani Chiaverano · Audax Italiano

Match statistics

Universidad CatólicaAudax Italiano
  • 63Possession, %37
  • 13Shots10
  • 4On target3
  • 1Big chances4
  • 6Corners3
  • 12Fouls14
  • 2Offsides0
  • 2Yellow cards6
  • 1Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Universidad Católica

  1. GKDarío Melo6.4
  2. DFJuan Díaz7.7
  3. DFEugenio Mena72′6.7
  4. DFAgustín Farías7.8
  5. DFTomás Asta-Buruaga7.3
  6. MFFernando Zuqui45′5.8
  7. MFCristián Cuevas7.7
  8. MFAlfred Canales57′6.9
  9. FWClemente Montes79′6.2
  10. FWJusto Giani45′6.3
  11. FWFernando Zampedri (C)7.8
Came on (5)
  1. FWDiego Valencia18′6.4
  2. MFMatías Palavecino33′6.2
  3. DFSebastián Arancibia33′6.9
  4. MFMartín Gómez11′6.2
  5. DFDaniel Gónzalez12′5.5

Audax Italiano

  1. GKTomás Ahumada7.0
  2. DFMarcelo Ortiz7.4
  3. DFFelipe Salomoni7.6
  4. DFRaimundo Rebolledo7.5
  5. DFEnzo Ferrario (C)6.3
  6. MFGiovani Chiaverano83′6.7
  7. MFCésar Pinares72′7.8
  8. MFPaolo Guajardo83′6.0
  9. MFMario Sandoval45′6.3
  10. FWDiego Coelho65′6.7
  11. FWMichael Fuentes45′5.1
Came on (5)
  1. FWFranco Troyansky25′6.0
  2. DFDiego Monreal7′
  3. MFOliver Rojas18′6.2
  4. MFFederico Mateos45′6.8
  5. FWNicolás Orellana7′

Form

Universidad Católica

  • 25.10away · Unión La Calera1:3
  • 13.09away · Palestino3:2
  • 06.09away · Everton CD1:0
  • 01.09O'Higgins3:2
  • 27.08away · Coquimbo Unido2:1

Audax Italiano

  • 24.10Huachipato1:1
  • 14.09O'Higgins1:0
  • 05.09away · Deportes Concepción1:0
  • 31.08away · Colo Colo1:5
  • 22.08Unión La Calera0:0

Head to head

  • 12.04.2026Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica3:4
  • 20.07.2025Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica1:1
  • 18.02.2025Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano3:1
  • 18.08.2024Audax Italiano — Universidad Católica2:1
  • 18.03.2024Universidad Católica — Audax Italiano0:0

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2Universidad de Chile26146645–21+2448
3Universidad Católica26144853–37+1646
4Deportes Limache261241048–37+1140
12O'Higgins26941330–39-931
13Audax Italiano26791028–35-730
14Cobresal26761338–48-1027

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →