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Chilean Liga de Primera, round 26 · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar

Deportes Limache — Audax Italiano

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Deportes Limache46%
Draw25%
Audax Italiano28%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Deportes Limache to win (46%), came true.

Deportes Limache are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 25%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Deportes Limache are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Deportes Limache are 81 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Audax Italiano: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 3 meetings: Deportes Limache 1 win, Audax Italiano 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Deportes Limache — Audax Italiano What is xG?1.7–1.2
Deportes Limache not to lose72%
Audax Italiano not to lose54%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Deportes Limache
  • Deportes Limache goals
  • Audax Italiano goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 15′Augusto Aguirre · Deportes Limache1:0
  2. 76′Martín Jiménez · Audax Italiano
  3. 85′Nicolás Orellana · Audax Italiano
  4. 96′Diego Monreal · Audax Italiano
  5. 99′Marcos Arturia · penalty · Deportes Limache2:0
Substitutions (8)
  1. 66′Vicente Zenteno ↔ Oliver Rojas · Audax Italiano
  2. 73′Carlos Morales ↔ Jean Meneses · Deportes Limache
  3. 73′Axel Alfonzo ↔ Leonardo Valencia · Deportes Limache
  4. 73′Tiago Galletto ↔ Misael Llantén · Deportes Limache
  5. 73′Diego Coelho ↔ Federico Mateos · Audax Italiano
  6. 81′Ariel Uribe ↔ Martín Jiménez · Audax Italiano
  7. 96′Vicente Álvarez ↔ Daniel Castro · Deportes Limache
  8. 96′Marcos Arturia ↔ Gonzalo Sosa · Deportes Limache

Match statistics

Deportes LimacheAudax Italiano
  • 44Possession, %56
  • 10Shots22
  • 4On target11
  • 3Big chances4
  • 4Corners8
  • 9Fouls13
  • 1Offsides6
  • 0Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Deportes Limache

  1. GKCésar9.2
  2. DFAugusto Aguirre7.7
  3. DFDylan Escobar7.0
  4. DFAlfonso Parot (C)8.0
  5. DFJavier Rojas8.0
  6. MFJean Meneses73′6.3
  7. MFMisael Llantén73′7.2
  8. MFCésar Fuentes7.2
  9. FWDaniel Castro89′7.1
  10. FWLeonardo Valencia73′7.5
  11. FWGonzalo Sosa89′6.7
Came on (5)
  1. MFTiago Galletto17′6.8
  2. FWMarcos Arturia1′
  3. FWVicente Álvarez1′
  4. DFAxel Alfonzo17′6.4
  5. DFCarlos Morales17′5.9

Audax Italiano

  1. GKTomás Ahumada6.1
  2. DFMarcelo Ortiz6.5
  3. DFFelipe Salomoni7.3
  4. DFDiego Monreal6.7
  5. DFOliver Rojas66′6.8
  6. MFMarco Collao (C)8.1
  7. MFFederico Mateos73′6.8
  8. MFMartín Jiménez81′7.3
  9. MFNicolás Orellana7.6
  10. FWGiovani Chiaverano7.3
  11. FWFranco Troyansky6.0
Came on (3)
  1. FWDiego Coelho17′6.2
  2. MFVicente Zenteno24′6.0
  3. MFAriel Uribe9′

Form

Deportes Limache

  • 26.10away · Universidad de Concepción1:0
  • 12.10Palestino2:2
  • 15.09away · Unión La Calera0:1
  • 08.09Cobresal3:0
  • 03.09Ñublense2:0

Audax Italiano

  • 29.10away · Universidad Católica1:1
  • 24.10Huachipato1:1
  • 14.09O'Higgins1:0
  • 05.09away · Deportes Concepción1:0
  • 31.08away · Colo Colo1:5

Head to head

  • 25.04.2026Audax Italiano — Deportes Limache2:2
  • 12.08.2025Deportes Limache — Audax Italiano4:0
  • 09.03.2025Audax Italiano — Deportes Limache3:1

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3Universidad Católica26144853–37+1646
4Deportes Limache261241048–37+1140
5Everton CD26117843–33+1040
12O'Higgins26941330–39-931
13Audax Italiano26791028–35-730
14Cobresal26761338–48-1027

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

Chilean Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →