International Friendlies · Thursday, 12 November, (UTC+3)
Uzbekistan — Russia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 12 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Russia are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Uzbekistan 1645, Russia 1778 — Russia clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Uzbekistan — Russia What is xG? | 0.9–1.6 | |
| Uzbekistan not to lose | 54% | |
| Russia not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Russia goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Uzbekistan | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 3.3 | 0.7 |
| xG per match | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 6.5 | 17.4 |
| On target | 1.5 | 7.0 |
| Corners | 3.0 | 6.6 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Possession, % | 38 | 62 |
Form
- 28.06away · DR Congo1:3
- 23.06away · Portugal0:5
- 18.06Colombia1:3
- 08.06away · Netherlands1:2
- 20.11Russia0:0
Head to head
- 20.11.2022Uzbekistan — Russia0:0
International Friendlies on the same day
- LithuaniaSurinamepreliminary2632422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.2
- MaltaEswatinipreliminary5328191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →