EFL Championship, round 14 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)
Wrexham — Middlesbrough
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 4 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Middlesbrough are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Wrexham — No. 17, 11 pts; Middlesbrough — No. 2, 21 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Middlesbrough: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Wrexham 0 wins, Middlesbrough 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wrexham — Middlesbrough What is xG? | 1.2–1.5 | |
| Wrexham not to lose | 56% | |
| Middlesbrough not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wrexham
- Wrexham goals
- Middlesbrough goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10West Bromwich Albion1:2
- 10.10away · Derby County1:1
- 19.09Southampton2:1
- 11.09away · West Ham United0:6
- 08.09Burnley1:1
- 13.10away · Stoke City3:2
- 10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 19.09away · Birmingham City2:2
- 15.09Millwall2:2
- 12.09Norwich City4:3
Head to head
- 07.08.2026Middlesbrough — Wrexham1:0
- 02.05.2026Wrexham — Middlesbrough2:2
- 25.10.2025Middlesbrough — Wrexham1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 10 | 6 | +11 | 20 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln City | 10 | 3 | -10 | 11 |
Championship on the same day
- Cardiff CityWest Ham Unitedpreliminary2523512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.7
- Bristol CityWolverhampton Wandererspreliminary3229392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →