DEL (German hockey league): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 307 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 307 matches 10,000 times. Eisbaren Berlin have the best chance to win the regular season: 63%, Adler Mannheim 12%. Closest to the drop: Iserlohn Roosters (38%).
Race for first place
| Date | Eisbaren Berlin | Munchen | Nurnberg Ice Tigers | Adler Mannheim | Grizzly Wolfsburg | Kolner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 September | 17% | 16% | 9% | 14% | 11% | 8% |
| 28 September | 25% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| 5 October | 38% | 18% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| 12 October | 62% | 5% | 4% | 13% | 2% | 3% |
| 14 October | 63% | 5% | 4% | 12% | 2% | 3% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Incl. play-in” counts “Straight to QF” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Straight to QF | Incl. play-in | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eisbaren Berlin | 20 (8) | 117 | 14 | 63%▲25 | 98%▲6 | 99% | — |
| 2 | Adler Mannheim | 17 (9) | 97 | 13 | 12%▲4 | 82%▲17 | 97%▲5 | <1% |
| 3 | Straubing Tigers | 14 (8) | 91 | 11 | 7%▲2 | 70%▲20 | 93%▲7 | <1%▼1 |
| 4 | Nurnberg Ice Tigers | 16 (9) | 88 | 12 | 4%▼8 | 65%▼9 | 92%▼4 | 1%▲1 |
| 5 | Munchen | 15 (8) | 88 | 10 | 5%▼13 | 63%▼16 | 92%▼5 | 1%▲1 |
| 6 | Kolner | 12 (8) | 81 | 9 | 3%▼3 | 47%▼7 | 82%▼4 | 2%▲1 |
| 7 | Grizzly Wolfsburg | 13 (8) | 78 | 7 | 2%▼4 | 40%▼13 | 79%▼8 | 2%▲1 |
| 8 | Augsburger Panther | 14 (8) | 76 | 4 | 1% | 36%▲12 | 76%▲14 | 3%▼3 |
| 9 | Krefeld Pinguine | 12 (8) | 71 | 1 | 1%▲1 | 25%▲10 | 64%▲10 | 5%▼1 |
| 10 | Frankfurt Lowen | 9 (8) | 70 | 8 | <1%▼2 | 25%▼13 | 67%▼13 | 5%▲4 |
| 11 | ERC Ingolstadt | 9 (8) | 70 | 6 | 1%▲1 | 24%▲11 | 64%▲18 | 5%▼6 |
| 12 | Bremerhaven | 9 (8) | 67 | 5 | <1%▼2 | 18%▼19 | 58%▼21 | 6%▲4 |
| 13 | Schwenninger | 5 (8) | 50 | 3 | <1% | 3%▲2 | 19%▲7 | 33%▼14 |
| 14 | Iserlohn Roosters | 6 (8) | 48 | 2 | — | 3%▼1 | 16%▼7 | 38%▲14 |
Chance of every place
Show the 14 × 14 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eisbaren Berlin | 63 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Adler Mannheim | 12 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Straubing Tigers | 7 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nurnberg Ice Tigers | 4 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Munchen | 5 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Kolner | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Grizzly Wolfsburg | 2 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| Augsburger Panther | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Krefeld Pinguine | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Frankfurt Lowen | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | |
| ERC Ingolstadt | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 5 |
| Bremerhaven | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | |
| Schwenninger | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 23 | 33 | ||||
| Iserlohn Roosters | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 38 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.