Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 17 October, 20:45 MSK

Ajoie — Zug

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Model prediction for 17 October

Ajoie29%

Draw in regulation22%

Zug49%

Model estimate at 23:50 MSK

In short

Zug are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

Zug are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ajoie — Zug		2.2–2.8
Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout)		38%
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		57%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Ajoie
Ajoie goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Ajoie

10.10Langnau Tigers5:4 OT
08.10away · Fribourg2:7
04.10Lugano5:4
02.10away · Davos1:3
29.09Lausanne3:0

Zug

11.10away · EHC Kloten3:1
04.10away · Servette1:2
29.09away · Rapperswil-Jona5:2
25.09away · Langnau Tigers3:5
22.09away · Lugano2:3 OT

Head to head

16.01.2026Zug — Ajoie2:4
29.11.2025Ajoie — Zug3:2 SO
23.10.2025Zug — Ajoie8:3
04.10.2025Ajoie — Zug1:3
01.02.2025Ajoie — Zug2:1

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
Ambri-PiottaServette
4852
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
20:45
DavosZurich
5248
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
20:45
FribourgLugano
6238
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
20:45
Langnau TigersBern
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:25.0
20:45
LausanneEHC Kloten
7129
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.9
20:45
Rapperswil-JonaBiel
5644
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →