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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK

Baranavichy — Yunost Minsk

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Model prediction and result

5:0Missed
Baranavichy18%
Draw in regulation18%
Yunost Minsk65%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Yunost Minsk to win (77% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 77% fails in about 23 matches out of 100 on average.

Yunost Minsk are clear favourites: 77% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • Yunost Minsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 1.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Baranavichy — Yunost Minsk1.9–3.4
Baranavichy to win (incl. OT and shootout)23%
Yunost Minsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)77%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Baranavichy
  • Baranavichy goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Baranavichy

  • 28.09Yunost Minsk5:2
  • 23.09Zhlobin2:1
  • 21.09Zhlobin2:3 SO
  • 18.09Slavutych0:6
  • 16.09Slavutych4:8

Yunost Minsk

  • 28.09away · Baranavichy2:5
  • 23.09Slavutych1:4
  • 21.09Slavutych3:5
  • 18.09away · Mogilev3:5
  • 16.09away · Mogilev3:2

Head to head

  • 28.09.2026Baranavichy — Yunost Minsk5:2
  • 30.11.2025Yunost Minsk — Baranavichy6:2
  • 28.11.2025Yunost Minsk — Baranavichy4:1
  • 14.09.2025Baranavichy — Yunost Minsk0:3
  • 12.09.2025Baranavichy — Yunost Minsk0:8

Next matches

  • Yunost MinskZhlobin3 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:2.4.9
  • SoligorskBaranavichy3 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 112%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.9

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • MogilevVitebsk
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:4.5.6
  • SlavutychSoligorsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:1.5.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →