NHL · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Buffalo Sabres — Ottawa Senators
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Buffalo Sabres 50%, Ottawa Senators 50% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 55%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.8.
Facts
- League table: Buffalo Sabres — No. 14, 9 pts; Ottawa Senators — No. 4, 12 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Buffalo Sabres 4 wins, Ottawa Senators 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Buffalo Sabres — Ottawa Senators | 2.8–2.8 | |
| Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Ottawa Senators to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 55% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Buffalo Sabres
- Buffalo Sabres goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 16.10away · Toronto Maple Leafs5:4 OT
- 14.10away · Montreal Canadiens3:4 SO
- 12.10Florida Panthers5:3
- 11.10Utah Mammoth1:4
- 09.10Dallas Stars0:4
- 16.10New York Islanders2:1 SO
- 14.10St. Louis Blues2:7
- 13.10away · New Jersey Devils4:1
- 11.10Nashville Predators3:2 SO
- 09.10Philadelphia Flyers2:1
Head to head
- 03.04.2026Ottawa Senators — Buffalo Sabres4:1
- 24.12.2025Ottawa Senators — Buffalo Sabres2:3 OT
- 16.10.2025Buffalo Sabres — Ottawa Senators8:4
- 02.04.2025Ottawa Senators — Buffalo Sabres2:5
- 26.03.2025Buffalo Sabres — Ottawa Senators3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 9 | 6 | +7 | 12 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 8 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 6 | 5 | +11 | 11 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Winnipeg Jets | 6 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Buffalo Sabres | 8 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
NHL on the same day
- Florida PanthersChicago Blackhawkspreliminary66341The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:15.4
- Los Angeles KingsSan Jose Sharkspreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.3
- Seattle KrakenCalgary Flamespreliminary58421The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 4:15.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →