NHL · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK
Calgary Flames — Toronto Maple Leafs
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 27 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toronto Maple Leafs are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.9.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Calgary Flames — Toronto Maple Leafs | 2.8–2.9 | |
| Calgary Flames to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Calgary Flames
- Calgary Flames goals
- Overtime chance
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Form
- 11.10Anaheim Ducks2:4
- 09.10Colorado Avalanche3:7
- 05.10away · Seattle Kraken1:6
- 04.10away · Vancouver Canucks1:4
- 02.10Seattle Kraken1:6
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
Head to head
- 03.02.2026Calgary Flames — Toronto Maple Leafs2:4
- 29.10.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Calgary Flames4:3
- 18.03.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Calgary Flames6:2
- 05.02.2025Calgary Flames — Toronto Maple Leafs3:6
- 19.01.2024Calgary Flames — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 31 | Philadelphia Flyers | 7 | 0 | -20 | 2 |
| 32 | Calgary Flames | 5 | 0 | -19 | 0 |
NHL on the same day
- New York RangersLos Angeles Kingspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.0
- Edmonton OilersDetroit Red Wingspreliminary60401The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →