KHL · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)
Cherepovets — Sochi
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cherepovets are clear favourites: 67% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 39%.
Why
- Cherepovets are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 1.9.
Facts
- League table: Cherepovets — No. 8, 26 pts; Sochi — No. 21, 14 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Cherepovets 5 wins, Sochi 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cherepovets — Sochi | 2.8–1.9 | |
| Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 67% | |
| Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 33% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 39% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Cherepovets
- Cherepovets goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.11away · Shanghai1:3
- 30.10Spartak Moscow1:5
- 29.10Spartak Moscow3:2 SO
- 25.10away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl0:1
- 23.10away · Spartak Moscow1:3
- 03.11Niznekamsk1:2
- 01.11Avangard Omsk2:1 OT
- 29.10away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:6
- 27.10away · Salavat Ufa2:1
- 25.10away · Lada4:3
Head to head
- 26.09.2026Cherepovets — Sochi3:1
- 21.01.2026Sochi — Cherepovets4:5 OT
- 25.12.2025Cherepovets — Sochi4:3 OT
- 06.11.2025Sochi — Cherepovets4:5 OT
- 09.10.2025Cherepovets — Sochi3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Spartak Moscow | 22 | 12 | +17 | 28 |
| 8, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Cherepovets | 23 | 12 | -2 | 26 |
| 9, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 21 | 12 | +14 | 25 |
| 20 | Tractor Chelyabinsk | 21 | 8 | -10 | 19 |
| 21 | Sochi | 22 | 7 | -37 | 14 |
| 22 | Lada | 22 | 4 | -38 | 13 |
KHL on the same day
- Avangard OmskVladivostokpreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
- Salavat UfaBarys Astanapreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.5
- CSKA MoscowLokomotiv Yaroslavlpreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 125%Model's score: 2:13.9
- ShanghaiKhabarovskpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →