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KHL · Wednesday, 18 November, (UTC+3)

CSKA Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

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Model prediction for 18 November

CSKA Moscow42%
Draw in regulation25%
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl34%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

CSKA Moscow are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 23%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 1.8.

Facts

  • League table: CSKA Moscow — No. 2, 34 pts; Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — No. 3, 30 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • CSKA Moscow: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: CSKA Moscow 0 wins, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CSKA Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2.0–1.8
CSKA Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)23%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)77%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap CSKA Moscow
  • CSKA Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

CSKA Moscow

  • 03.11away · Magnitogorsk7:3
  • 01.11away · Tractor Chelyabinsk3:2 OT
  • 28.10Tractor Chelyabinsk5:1
  • 25.10away · SKA St. Petersburg3:1
  • 23.10away · Yekaterinburg1:5

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

  • 02.11Lada0:1
  • 29.10Sochi6:2
  • 25.10Cherepovets1:0
  • 23.10Dynamo Moscow2:1 OT
  • 20.10Niznekamsk0:1

Head to head

  • 13.09.2026CSKA Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3
  • 04.01.2026CSKA Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2 SO
  • 18.12.2025Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — CSKA Moscow2:1 SO
  • 15.10.2025Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — CSKA Moscow4:1
  • 18.09.2025CSKA Moscow — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:5

Full record: 81 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk24172579–56+2336
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow22170573–42+3134
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl21150655–36+1930
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceShanghai21142564–51+1330

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

KHL on the same day

  • Avangard OmskVladivostokpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • Salavat UfaBarys Astanapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.5
  • CherepovetsSochipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.8
  • ShanghaiKhabarovskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →