AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Colorado Eagles — Bakersfield Condors

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Model prediction for 24 October

Colorado Eagles48%
Draw in regulation21%
Bakersfield Condors31%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Colorado Eagles are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Colorado Eagles are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Colorado Eagles — Bakersfield Condors3.1–2.5
Colorado Eagles to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Bakersfield Condors to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

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Form

Colorado Eagles

  • 11.10Abbotsford Canucks3:4
  • 10.10Abbotsford Canucks4:3 SO
  • 05.10away · Tucson Roadrunners5:3
  • 04.10away · Tucson Roadrunners2:0
  • 09.06Chicago Wolves3:4

Bakersfield Condors

  • 11.10away · Calgary Wranglers5:4
  • 10.10away · Calgary Wranglers1:2
  • 05.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:1
  • 04.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:4
  • 27.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6

Head to head

  • 02.04.2026Bakersfield Condors — Colorado Eagles2:5
  • 03.03.2026Bakersfield Condors — Colorado Eagles5:4 SO
  • 26.02.2026Colorado Eagles — Bakersfield Condors3:4 OT
  • 25.02.2026Colorado Eagles — Bakersfield Condors4:2
  • 24.01.2026Bakersfield Condors — Colorado Eagles1:4

Full record: 24 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−PtsP%
5Calgary Wranglers430114–10+46.750
6Colorado Eagles430114–10+46.750
7Toronto Marlies430116–12+46.750
19Tucson Roadrunners420214–12+24.500
20Bakersfield Condors420212–11+14.500
21Charlotte Checkers420211–12-14.500

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

AHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →