NHL · Monday, 26 October, MSK

Dallas Stars — New York Islanders

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Model prediction for 26 October

Dallas Stars46%
Draw in regulation24%
New York Islanders30%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Dallas Stars are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.1 in total, against a competition average of 6.0.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

  • Dallas Stars are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dallas Stars — New York Islanders2.8–2.3
Dallas Stars to win (incl. OT and shootout)59%
New York Islanders to win (incl. OT and shootout)41%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)54%

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Form

Dallas Stars

  • 14.10Colorado Avalanche2:3
  • 11.10away · Pittsburgh Penguins1:2 SO
  • 09.10away · Buffalo Sabres4:0
  • 06.10San Jose Sharks5:0
  • 04.10away · Nashville Predators1:2

New York Islanders

  • 14.10Vancouver Canucks3:2
  • 11.10Tampa Bay Lightning3:5
  • 09.10Chicago Blackhawks4:1
  • 07.10away · New York Rangers2:5
  • 04.10New Jersey Devils6:0

Head to head

  • 27.03.2026New York Islanders — Dallas Stars2:1
  • 19.11.2025Dallas Stars — New York Islanders2:3
  • 24.02.2025New York Islanders — Dallas Stars3:4
  • 13.10.2024Dallas Stars — New York Islanders3:0
  • 27.02.2024Dallas Stars — New York Islanders2:3 OT

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
19Buffalo Sabres731319–26-77
20New York Islanders630319–15+46
21Washington Capitals630319–18+16
24San Jose Sharks630316–23-76
25Dallas Stars621313–11+25
26Columbus Blue Jackets520316–21-54

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

NHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →