NHL · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Edmonton Oilers are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 67%.
Why
- Edmonton Oilers are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs | 3.5–2.8 | |
| Edmonton Oilers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 62% | |
| Toronto Maple Leafs to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 38% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 67% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Edmonton Oilers
- Edmonton Oilers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · San Jose Sharks3:1
- 08.10away · Anaheim Ducks5:2
- 04.10Seattle Kraken3:1
- 02.10away · Vancouver Canucks9:7
- 30.09Vancouver Canucks5:6 OT
- 11.10away · Colorado Avalanche6:3
- 09.10away · Vegas Golden Knights3:4 SO
- 07.10Nashville Predators5:4 OT
- 04.10Ottawa Senators2:3
- 01.10New York Islanders2:1
Head to head
- 04.02.2026Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs2:5
- 14.12.2025Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers3:6
- 02.02.2025Edmonton Oilers — Toronto Maple Leafs3:4
- 17.11.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers4:3 OT
- 24.03.2024Toronto Maple Leafs — Edmonton Oilers6:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Ottawa Senators | 6 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Edmonton Oilers | 5 | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Minnesota Wild | 6 | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 12, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 6 | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 13, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 6 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Winnipeg Jets | 5 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
NHL on the same day
- Boston BruinsSan Jose Sharkspreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Columbus Blue JacketsVegas Golden Knightspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.5
- Ottawa SenatorsNew York Rangerspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 4:15.2
- Pittsburgh PenguinsNashville Predatorspreliminary59411The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 5:25.9
- St. Louis BluesCarolina Hurricanespreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:45.3
- Washington CapitalsBuffalo Sabrespreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.7
- Utah MammothTampa Bay Lightningpreliminary56441The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 5:25.8
- Calgary FlamesDetroit Red Wingspreliminary45552The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:45.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →