Swiss National League (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, 15:00 MSK · SWISS Arena

EHC Kloten — Zug

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Model prediction and result

1:3Came true

EHC Kloten35%

Draw in regulation23%

Zug42%

Model estimate at 14:24 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Zug to win (54% incl. overtime), came true.

Zug are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: EHC Kloten — Zug		2.2–2.4
EHC Kloten to win (incl. OT and shootout)		46%
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		54%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap EHC Kloten
EHC Kloten goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

EHC Kloten

09.10away · Davos4:1
03.10away · Langnau Tigers2:6
02.10Fribourg1:4
29.09away · Servette0:4
26.09away · Zurich2:3

Zug

04.10away · Servette1:2
29.09away · Rapperswil-Jona5:2
25.09away · Langnau Tigers3:5
22.09away · Lugano2:3 OT
19.09away · Davos6:2

Head to head

23.01.2026EHC Kloten — Zug1:2
03.01.2026Zug — EHC Kloten1:2 OT
17.12.2025Zug — EHC Kloten5:4
19.09.2025EHC Kloten — Zug2:5
27.02.2025EHC Kloten — Zug3:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10
14, Relegation play-off	EHC Kloten	11	2	1	1	7	23–40	-17	9

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
EHC KlotenAmbri-Piotta16 October · National League
5446
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9
20:45
AjoieZug17 October · National League
3862
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →