Swiss National League (hockey) · Thursday, 8 October, 21:00 MSK · BCF-Arena

Fribourg — Ajoie

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Model prediction and result

7:2Came true

Fribourg69%

Draw in regulation17%

Ajoie14%

Model estimate at 19:55 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 7:2: the model's most likely outcome, Fribourg to win (81% incl. overtime), came true.

Fribourg are clear favourites: 81% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

Fribourg are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 1.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fribourg — Ajoie		3.5–1.7
Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		81%
Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout)		19%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Fribourg
Fribourg goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Fribourg

03.10Ambri-Piotta1:2
02.10away · EHC Kloten4:1
29.09Bern5:2
26.09Langnau Tigers4:3 OT
25.09away · Servette3:4 SO

Ajoie

04.10Lugano5:4
02.10away · Davos1:3
29.09Lausanne3:0
26.09Rapperswil-Jona4:5 OT
25.09away · Bern3:2 OT

Head to head

17.12.2025Fribourg — Ajoie4:2
05.12.2025Ajoie — Fribourg1:5
12.11.2025Fribourg — Ajoie5:1
26.09.2025Ajoie — Fribourg2:5
17.01.2025Ajoie — Fribourg1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
ZurichFribourg10 October · National League
6139
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
20:45
AjoieLangnau Tigers10 October · National League
3862
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →