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Belarus Extraleague (hockey) · Saturday, 3 October, MSK

Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha

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Model prediction and result

4:3Came true
Gomel70%
Draw in regulation16%
Lokomotiv Orsha14%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Gomel to win (81% incl. overtime), came true.

Gomel are clear favourites: 81% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

  • Gomel are more dangerous in attack: 3.6 expected goals against 1.7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha3.6–1.8
Gomel to win (incl. OT and shootout)81%
Lokomotiv Orsha to win (incl. OT and shootout)19%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Gomel
  • Gomel goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Gomel

  • 29.09away · Novopolotsk1:3
  • 27.09away · Novopolotsk5:0
  • 24.09away · Brest1:2
  • 22.09away · Brest7:4
  • 17.09away · Molodechno4:3 SO

Lokomotiv Orsha

  • 29.09Lida5:4 SO
  • 27.09Lida4:5
  • 24.09away · Vitebsk1:4
  • 22.09away · Vitebsk0:3
  • 18.09Soligorsk1:7

Head to head

  • 23.02.2026Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha5:2
  • 21.02.2026Gomel — Lokomotiv Orsha3:2 SO
  • 12.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Gomel3:0
  • 10.11.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Gomel1:4
  • 07.02.2025Lokomotiv Orsha — Gomel4:2

Next match

  • GomelLokomotiv Orsha5 October · Belarus Extraleague
    1The most likely outcome came true: 116%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.5

Belarus Extraleague on the same day

  • Yunost MinskZhlobin
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:2.4.9
  • SlavutychVitebsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 6:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • SoligorskBaranavichy
    1The most likely outcome came true: 112%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:1.5.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 70% will not happen in roughly 30 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →