VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 29 October, MSK

Gornyak — Metallurg Novokuznetsk

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Model prediction for 29 October

Gornyak31%
Draw in regulation22%
Metallurg Novokuznetsk47%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Metallurg Novokuznetsk are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Metallurg Novokuznetsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gornyak — Metallurg Novokuznetsk2.2–2.7
Gornyak to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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Form

Gornyak

  • 06.10Bars2:3
  • 04.10Almetyevsk1:2 SO
  • 02.10CSK VVS5:2
  • 26.09away · Khimik4:1
  • 24.09away · Zvezda Moscow3:2

Metallurg Novokuznetsk

  • 13.10Izhevsk3:2 SO
  • 11.10Olympia2:0
  • 05.10away · Kristall Saratov2:0
  • 03.10away · Dizel2:0
  • 01.10away · Tambov0:3

Head to head

  • 19.04.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Gornyak5:0
  • 16.04.2026Gornyak — Metallurg Novokuznetsk4:7
  • 14.04.2026Gornyak — Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:2
  • 11.04.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Gornyak1:0
  • 09.04.2026Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Gornyak2:1

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, PlayoffsAKM1483343–32+1119
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
8, PlayoffsKaluga1383229–19+1019
12, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016
13, PlayoffsGornyak1071229–18+1115
14, PlayoffsBars1471635–44-915

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →