AHL (American Hockey League) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Hamilton Hammers 47%, Toronto Marlies 53% including overtime.
6.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.0 and 3.1.
Facts
- League table: Hamilton Hammers — No. 24, 3 pts; Toronto Marlies — No. 7, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Hamilton Hammers: 3 defeats in a row; Toronto Marlies: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 3 meetings: Hamilton Hammers 0 wins, Toronto Marlies 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies | 3.0–3.1 | |
| Hamilton Hammers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Toronto Marlies to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Hamilton Hammers
- Hamilton Hammers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Toronto Marlies2:5
- 10.10Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10away · Toronto Marlies3:5
- 03.10away · Belleville Senators5:2
- 11.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:2
- 10.10away · Hamilton Hammers5:4 SO
- 03.10Hamilton Hammers5:3
- 03.10away · Rochester Americans1:3
- 20.06Chicago Wolves4:3
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies2:5
- 10.10.2026Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
- 03.10.2026Toronto Marlies — Hamilton Hammers5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 7 | Toronto Marlies | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 8 | Hershey Bears | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 23 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 24 | Hamilton Hammers | 4 | 1 | -3 | 3 | .375 |
| 25 | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
AHL on the same day
- Grand Rapids GriffinsTexas Starspreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.4
- Hershey BearsHartford Wolf Packpreliminary61391The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- Laval RocketLehigh Valley Phantomspreliminary63371The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.6
- Rochester AmericansCleveland Monsterspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
- Coachella Valley FirebirdsColorado Eaglespreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.3
- Ontario ReignSan Jose Barracudapreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
- Iowa WildRockford IceHogspreliminary52481The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →