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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK

HC Norilsk — Dinamo St. Petersburg

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Model prediction for 3 November

HC Norilsk35%
Draw in regulation22%
Dinamo St. Petersburg43%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Dinamo St. Petersburg are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.2 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.7.

Facts

  • League table: HC Norilsk — No. 4, 20 pts; Dinamo St. Petersburg — No. 20, 13 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
  • HC Norilsk: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: HC Norilsk 0 wins, Dinamo St. Petersburg 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Norilsk — Dinamo St. Petersburg2.5–2.7
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)45%
Dinamo St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)55%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HC Norilsk
  • HC Norilsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HC Norilsk

  • 12.10Perm3:1
  • 10.10Toros Neftekamsk5:3
  • 08.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 06.10Olympia3:2
  • 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO

Dinamo St. Petersburg

  • 14.10away · Bars2:4
  • 12.10away · Almetyevsk2:3
  • 10.10away · CSK VVS5:3
  • 05.10away · SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:3
  • 02.10away · Zvezda Moscow4:2

Head to head

  • 08.12.2025HC Norilsk — Dinamo St. Petersburg2:3
  • 28.11.2025Dinamo St. Petersburg — HC Norilsk2:1
  • 21.02.2025Dinamo St. Petersburg — HC Norilsk3:2
  • 27.09.2024HC Norilsk — Dinamo St. Petersburg2:8
  • 23.12.2023Dinamo St. Petersburg — HC Norilsk3:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
5, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
20Dinamo St. Petersburg1461739–46-713
21HC Yugra1260620–18+212

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • Rubin TyumenOrskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:13.9
  • Kristall SaratovOlympiapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • TambovIzhevskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 4:24.9
  • RyazanAlmetyevskpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →