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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)

HC Norilsk — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg

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Model prediction for 5 November

HC Norilsk34%
Draw in regulation23%
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg43%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

SKA-VMF St. Petersburg are favourites: 56% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • SKA-VMF St. Petersburg are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: HC Norilsk — No. 7, 20 pts; SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — No. 11, 17 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • HC Norilsk: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: HC Norilsk 3 wins, SKA-VMF St. Petersburg 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Norilsk — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg2.1–2.4
HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)44%
SKA-VMF St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)56%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap HC Norilsk
  • HC Norilsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

HC Norilsk

  • 12.10Perm3:1
  • 10.10Toros Neftekamsk5:3
  • 08.10Izhevsk3:2
  • 06.10Olympia3:2
  • 01.10away · Kristall Saratov3:2 SO

SKA-VMF St. Petersburg

  • 14.10away · Almetyevsk1:2 SO
  • 12.10away · CSK VVS5:0
  • 05.10Dinamo St. Petersburg3:0
  • 02.10away · Khimik0:1
  • 30.09away · Zvezda Moscow3:1

Head to head

  • 10.12.2025HC Norilsk — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg3:4 SO
  • 30.11.2025SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — HC Norilsk4:0
  • 23.02.2025SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — HC Norilsk3:6
  • 29.09.2024HC Norilsk — SKA-VMF St. Petersburg5:3
  • 25.12.2023SKA-VMF St. Petersburg — HC Norilsk1:3

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
7, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
8, PlayoffsOrsk1283135–22+1319
10, PlayoffsPerm1390436–23+1318
11, PlayoffsSKA-VMF St. Petersburg1381433–23+1017
12, PlayoffsBars1581639–46-717

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • HC YugraOrskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:13.7
  • AKMAlmetyevskpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.1
  • DizelIzhevskpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.3
  • RyazanCSK VVSpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →