AHL (American Hockey League) · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: Henderson Silver Knights 49%, Ontario Reign 51% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign | 2.7–2.8 | |
| Henderson Silver Knights to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Ontario Reign to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 52% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Henderson Silver Knights
- Henderson Silver Knights goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · San Diego Gulls0:2
- 05.10Bakersfield Condors1:3
- 04.10Bakersfield Condors4:3
- 10.05away · Colorado Eagles2:6
- 07.05away · Colorado Eagles0:4
- 12.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:2 OT
- 04.10Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
- 03.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds6:5 OT
- 10.05Coachella Valley Firebirds2:3 OT
- 08.05away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
Head to head
- 26.03.2026Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign3:1
- 09.03.2026Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign1:2
- 07.03.2026Ontario Reign — Henderson Silver Knights4:3 SO
- 10.01.2026Ontario Reign — Henderson Silver Knights5:4 SO
- 31.12.2025Henderson Silver Knights — Ontario Reign2:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Grand Rapids Griffins | 5 | 3 | +4 | 7 | .700 |
| 12 | Ontario Reign | 3 | 2 | -2 | 4 | .667 |
| 13 | Wilkes-Barre/Scranton | 4 | 2 | +8 | 5 | .625 |
| 26 | Rockford IceHogs | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | .333 |
| 27 | Henderson Silver Knights | 3 | 1 | -3 | 2 | .333 |
| 28 | San Jose Barracuda | 4 | 1 | -9 | 2 | .250 |
AHL on the same day
- Rochester AmericansHershey Bearspreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.6
- Milwaukee AdmiralsManitoba Moosepreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- Colorado EaglesCharlotte Checkerspreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1
- Coachella Valley FirebirdsTucson Roadrunnerspreliminary57431The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
- San Jose BarracudaAbbotsford Canuckspreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →